18 December 2008

End of an era and sign for the future?

The last Qantas flight from Japan arrived in Cairns this morning around 6:00am, when QF60 from Tokyo touched down.

From today, the Japan-Cairns route will be operated by Qantas-owned budget carrier Jetstar, with a much reduced capacity and heralding what The Mole has been saying for some time, namely

Qantas will increasingly hand over routes such as this one to its lower cost and higher profit sister, Jetstar.

With the New Year upon us and the world in an economic turndown, letÃ¢â¬â¢s do some stargazing. The Mole reckons that over the next few years, we will see heaps of Qantas routes handed over to Jetstar, something Qantas said they would never do when they set up Jetstar.

Needs must though, and the world is a very different place now!
Domestically, what does this all mean?

The Mole reckons that in the not-too-distant future, we will see Qantas operating Sydney-Melbourne, Sydney- Brisbane, Sydney Ã¢â¬' Canberra and Sydney Ã¢â¬' Perth, and that is about it.

Qantas will offer a premium service, with Jetstar also operating those routes as a budget carrier and also operating every other route on the current Qantas network, except for Qantas Link Ã¢â¬' not sure where that fits yet!

On the international side, The Mole reckons that Qantas will, in time, end up retaining only the most profitable routes, where they can offer a premium service.... and which are those?

Well currently, before V Australia came on the scene, the Pacific, but it is very likely as competition increases on that route,

Qantas will operate a premium service on the Pacific with Jetstar operating the leisure, cheap-as-chips service.

What about the old Kangaroo route? The Mole thinks that will be the same story with Qantas offering a premium and, when technology allows it to happen, non-stop service to London only, and Jetstar doing everything else.

So what about aircraft? Well, the chess pieces have also moved there with the delivery delays for both the A380 and the Boeing 787, which along with the economic downturn gives QF and JQ the perfect opportunity to reassess their equipment needs and allocations.

What does that mean? I reckon that very quickly we will see Airbus A380s in JQ colours on the Pacific and flying one stop to Europe, and QF taking more 787 Dreamliners for their premium services.

A dream or guesswork... who knows, by letÃ¢â¬â¢s see what happens!

A commentary by The Mole