12 January 2009

Ã¢â¬ËœStagnation is the best we can hope for in Ã¢â¬â¢09Ã¢â¬â¢ - report

This year will be one of "stagnation at best" a new report warns.

The travel industry can expect to contract by one to two per cent in 2009, and that in all likelihood the downturn will continue before things improve.

Signals for 2010 are also not encouraging in the wake of the global financial and economic crisis.

The findings come from consultants IPK International for the World Travel Trends Report produced by German trade show ITB which takes place in Berlin on March 11-15.

Imminent negative developments will impact strongest on North America, Europe and the business travel sector, rather than on holiday travel.

Interest in short and medium-range travel destinations will increase over the next two years.

Dr. Martin Buck, director competence centre travel & logistics for show organiser Messe Berlin said: "Recent months have shown how quickly the circumstances on which to base reliable predictions can change.

"Besides any economic recovery, factors such as price developments on the markets for raw materials have a sustained impact on the travel industry, making it impossible to issue reliable forecasts at this time."

With lower fuel prices there will be a resurgence of personal car travel.

The findings indicate that the prospects for the travel market recovering vary significantly depending on the region.

The Asia-Pacific region and South America could emerge from the crisis by the end of this year, as these are the regions which depend most on rising demand from countries like India and China.

There are positive signs for Europe as well as even in times of great economic hardship people are unwilling to give up holidays.

According to a Europe-wide poll for the European Travel Monitor in 2008, 48% of respondents said they would definitely take a holiday in 2009, and that it was most likely they would travel more often than in 2008.

Meanwhile, 32% said they would travel at least as often as in 2008, and only 14% said they would travel less.

Only six per cent of those polled said they would not travel at all.

But figures within Europe vary considerably. Whereas Norwegians and Finns are eager to travel in 2009, Italians and Britons are rather less keen to make any plans.

*The ITB World Travel Trends Report is based on the assessments of 60 tourism experts from 30 countries.

by Phil Davies

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Your Comments (1)

contract by 1 or 2% ?

Where do they get these people from? Dream on if you think the market will be 1 or 2% down, it will be much more. There's nothing wrong with it being down a longer way as long as capacity is balanced to meet the demand.

By Nick Cooper, Monday, January 12, 2009