19 May 2009

Tour operators prepare their rain dances

Comment by Jeremy Skidmore (www.jeremyskidmore.com)

"Do you know, last August it rained every day in Cornwall, every single day," said Thomas Cook chief executive Manny Fontenla-Novoa. "Fantastic!"

Forget swine flu, unemployment, a dire economy, terrorism, bird flu, SARS, the end of the world or anything else you want to throw into the mix, they all pale into insignificance compared to the biggest threat to overseas holidays: sunshine in the UK.

I was told that by a major tour operator when I first came into the industry, long before anyone had heard of most of the things in the paragraph above, and it remains true today.

The single biggest reason why people go abroad on holiday is because it rains rather a lot over here.

Few would dispute the beauty of our countryside or, these days, the cleanliness of some of our coastlines, but beach cricket doesn’t have quite the same appeal in drizzle.

Small wonder, then, that Thomas Cook was this week peddling statistics about the weather that would make the BBC forecast look superficial.

Apparently, the wettest day recorded in the UK saw 279.4 millimetres fall in Martinstown in Dorset on July 18, 1955. Braemar in Scotland is the coldest place in the UK with an average yearly temperature of 7C.

Who cares? Travel companies, and it is vital that they reinforce this message, because all the talk in recent years of global warming could leave some holidaymakers naievely thinking we are going to get a dry summer.

And then they may stay at home and, worse still, remember it next year and decide to stay at home again. This of course, would be the end of the world for the travel industry.

Cue some more statistics from Thomas Cook showing that over half the population don’t believe current predictions for a scorching British summer in 2009. Perception is more important than reality.

Current booking trends show that operators may be worrying unnecessarily. Demand for the overseas holiday remains robust, with people switching to cheaper non-Euro destinations.

Bookings for UK holiday centres such as Butlins have risen, but how much of that is due to the weather? Surely it is more down to the fact that facilities have improved significantly at Butlins and the company provides great entertainment for children. Some families are always going to be attracted to that, regardless of the weather, and would prefer not to fight through airports with their little treasures.

For others, the lure of the foreign holiday remains as strong as ever, for all kinds of reasons. As always, those people who are still able to earn a living will find a way to get away.

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Your Comments (5)

The Euro

Nearly three Euros for a pint!!! If you're at the cheap end of the market kiss it good-bye because there is no such thing as cheap in the Euro zone anymore. Bring on one currency eh? And the dollar? How can we crash against the currency that caused this mess in the first place. For me the fly and flop brigade have two choices. All-inclusive or stay at home. That is until they realise that despite global warming last summer was the wettest for seven years; and it did rain EVERY day in August. Bring on the rain, thats what I say!!

By Andy Parr, Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Eating Out is Expensive in Europe??

Much of what Richard Carrick has said is true but I take exception that eating out in Europe is more expensive than the UK! Val d Isere and St Tropez maybe but eating out in rural France is way cheaper than your average British pub! And way healthier, organic and tastier too.. And from 1 July it is going to be nearly 15% cheaper as the french government has relaxed VAT on eating out from 19.6% to 5.5%. But I agree self catering is a great alternative - avoid the airport by taking your car and the ferry and enjoy shopping for locally grown produce at local markets at a fraction of Tesco prices. And whatever the weather dishes up here the chances of it being sunnier just a little further south are much higher so why not have the best of both worlds and drive to France this summer!

By Catherine Rankin, Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Abroad or at home?

I can agree and disagree with so much said here. Many go overseas because they just love being abroad, the barmy evenings, palm trees, the colourful mediteranean type atmosphere etc, all a major change from the daily grind. Many people hate the flying/airport process, while others see it as all part of their holiday, part of the fun of going to a foreign land. I love Britain and would never want to live anywhere else but in my experience, holidays, even just days out here, are far from cheap (eating out is still cheaper in most European resorts) and if half the country holiday in the UK this year, then expect prices to rise as suppliers across the board try to cash in. As for the recent extreemly long weather 'forecast', I understand forecasts can only be accurate for up to 5 days ahead (hurrican and Michael Fish spring to mind!) after that it speculation and assumption. Holidays in the UK will get a boost this year which is great news but the holiday abroad is not finished, as is already being suggested by some doomsters (just like 120 million of us will die of swine flu this year - yeah right!) Obviously I hope we get a good summer here, not least for all you 1st time campers (hope your tent/caravan's got air-con)!

By Keith Standen, Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Thomas Cook has its best ever year selling Hoseasons UK Holidays!

And that's despite Manny's dire predictions or hopes for this summer's weather. I know exactly what the UK weather will be like for the rest of the Summer - it'll be sweltering hot, windy and rainy at some time - we will almost certainly have one extreme weather event that will have people predicting the arrival of Mediterranean agriculture in the Yorkshire Dales. A week later, The Sun will run 'scorcher' and 'phew' headlines and carry pictures of people swimming in Trafalgar Square. In the real world however, UK self catering is having a great year simply because it represents exceptional value to pack the kids and the dog in the family car and drive 2-3 hours and stay in a holiday home with fully fitted kitchens and all the mod cons. They'll cook a bit and eat out lot. Europe, by comparison is incredibly expensive at time when people are being very cautious about their outgoings. The weather is a secondary consideration, especially when there are superb 'all weather' facilities at many holiday parks. Add to this fears of melanoma, appalling airport and low cost airline publicity and youve got your answer. In the meantime, well done and thanks to Thomas Cook shops and other travel agents for recognising the opportunity to fill their boots!

By Richard Carrick, Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Often cheaper too!

Despite the current strength of the Euro it is often cheaper to take a holiday abroad than to stay in the UK, and when the effect of the recession in Europe really bites, and the pound recovers the overseas option will look even better. There are also so many great special offers at the moment, that only a long scorching summer in the UK will deter all those holidaymakers, who have deferred their plans over the last 8 months, from travelling again. Get ready for the late rush to fill all those empty airline seats and hotel beds!

By andrew brownrigg, Tuesday, May 19, 2009