03 September 2009

Prediction: recession starting to end this year

So when’s the recession going to end? Try later this year.

"We anticipate in late 2009 we will see an upswing, with real results apparent in early 2010," answered Forrester Research’s travel industry analyst Diane Clarkson.

"The clouds were at their darkest last fall. But it’s clear to me that we have now seen the worst of it. But for how much longer will we have to deal with the ongoing bad weather? By September I think we will start to see growth again, but it won’t be on the same level as 2006 - 2007. I think one year from now we’ll see clear skies," predicted Mark Mahaney, Citygroup Investment Research Director of Internet Research.

They will both be speaking at EyeforTravel’s Travel Distribution Summit on Sept. 16-17 in Chicago. Eye for Travel’s Helen Raff spoke to the two. Other points:

Ã¯~~¶ On how travel companies can make customers feel valued: "Firstly, be transparent about prices. The current fluctuation of prices is making customers feel uncomfortable. Secondly, companies need to communicate in a more personal and relevant way." ---Clarkson.

Ã¯~~¶ On consolidation: "I think we will see more industry consolidation and my guess it will feature online travel agencies. I don’t think in five years time the picture will be the same, with four big guys dominating the space."--- Mahaney

Ã¯~~¶ On the impact of mobile strategy: "I think that mobile is going have a big impact on the travel industry, but the timing is tricky. To fully launch the mobile channel, companies need a technological investment and a promotional strategy - both of which are hard to come by with restricted budgets. The big question is for travel executives is, will mobile generate incremental revenue or will this simply be a channel shift? But I definitely think smart marketers should have mobile on their radar"—Clarkson

By David Wilkening