09 February 2010

Swine flu: one foot in the grave

Health officials are not ready yet to dismiss the worldwide threat of swine flu but the worst of it is over in the US, Canada and many other countries in the northern hemisphere, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

But there is still intensive flu activity in Egypt, India and elsewhere, says Dr. Margaret Chan of WHO, which is a UN organization.

"It is too premature and too early for us to say we have come to an end of the pandemic influenza worldwide," the Director-General of WHO told reporters.

Health experts should monitor the disease for another six to 12 months, she said.

Her comments came after four weeks where no US states reported any flu cases.

There’s nothing new about warnings over swine flu. Back in 1976, there were estimates over one million Americans would die of the disease without vaccinations.

The swine flu pandemic could kill millions and cause anarchy in the world’s poorest nations, warned a United Nations report last year that asked for multi-million dollars in vaccinations. WHO predicted up to 50 million people could die from swine flu last year.

However, while 11,500 people are known to have died from the disease since the outbreak began in April, up to half a million people die each year from regular flu, according to government health statistics.

An estimated 70 million Americans were vaccinated against the flu strain with 50 million or more getting sick, says the AP. The vast majority recovered -- apparently from natural immunity.

Critics say warnings over swine flu were instrumental in promoting pharmaceutical sales.

Chan warned that the H1N1 swine flu virus can mutate into even more dangerous diseases.
Health officials are now warning about a new strain called H5N1, which is more virulent swine flu under another name: "bird flu."

A footnote: Chan acknowledged she had yet to get her own swine flu shot.

By David Wilkening