Scotland to be Carbon Neutral?

Nine predictions for the ninth (and hopefully most challenging!) year of the millennium as follows:

1. THE GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE TOURISM CERTIFICATION RACE WILL HOT UP

Current front runners are:

Green Globe - they’ve got the name and the history, the backing and the capital, they must be in the lead
Travelife - certainly got the backing of the big tour operators
Green Tourism (yes, they are sure to lose the ‘Business Scheme’ unwieldy part of their name) have carved out their niche in the UK and, maybe New Zealand

2. THE RACE TO BE THE FIRST CARBON NEUTRAL DESTINATION HAS STARTED

In the running are:

Scotland
Sri Lanka (maybe with the Earth Lung they could even be ‘Carbon Negative!’
Panama
New Zealand
Australia
Egypt
Costa Rica

2015 seems to be the date that everyone has in mind, but watch out for the declaration in 2009!

3. THE PRICES MAY BE LOW BUT THE AMOUNTS OF CARBON TRADED WILL DOUBLE IN 2009

It’s a no-brainer, isn’t it? From any point of view, the amount of carbon traded will at least double in 2009.

4. CARBON TRADERS WON’T LOSE THEIR SHIRTS IN 2009

Unlike derivatives and the various other funny stocks, the carbon market fulfils a fundamental need. It is projected to rise to hundreds of trillions of dollars within the next 20 years. Traders in the carbon markets will start making money NOW!

5. MORE AND MORE ENTREPRENEURS AND ORGANISATIONS WILL SEE THAT THERE IS MONEY IN SUSTAINABLE TOURISM IN 2009

Dismissed as wooley, responsible, green, eco, 2009 is the year that sustainable tourism will finally become two things – COMMERCIAL and MAINSTREAM

6. AFRICAN TOURISM WILL LEAP IN 2009

Why? The MDGs, silly! Simply time is running out for economic development in Africa, the only continent where the MDGs will currently not be met. All the donors will be funding tourism development in Africa because it’s the only way to get a quick (and hopefully sustainable) economic hit.

7. THE ECONOMIC CRISIS WILL DRAMATICALLY CHANGE TOURISM ARCHITECTURE FOR THE BETTER

ie More domestic and regional tourism. Higher priced long haul tourism. More stay at home tourism. You see value for money tourism = sustainable tourism AND the closer your tourism asset is to home, the more you’ll protect it.

8. IT WILL FINALLY BE UNDERSTOOD THAT AIRPLANES CREATE CARBON EMISSIONS, NOT PASSENGERS.

This means the higher the load factor, the lower the per passenger emission. We all know that the lower the fare and the capacity, the higher the load factor. We also understand that the more efficient the airline, the lower the fare they can charge. So the equation runs as follows:
Efficient airline = low prices = high load factor = low p/p emissions = sustainability

This must mean that the airline pays a carbon emission tax per flight?

9. THE VISION ON SUSTAINABLE TOURISM WEBSITE WILL BE UP AND RUNNING BY THE END OF 2009

Looking forward to your participation!

Happy and sustainable 2009 to one and all!

Valere Tjolle