International tourism slumped by eight per cent between January and April compared to the same period last year, new figures show.
Destinations worldwide recorded a total of 247 million international tourist arrivals in the four months, down from 269 million in 2008.
Given the changes in the outlook, the United Nations World Tourism Organisation has revised its forecast for 2009, taking account of the results for the first four months of the year and the current market conditions.
International tourism is now forecast to decline by between -6% and -4% in 2009, as the pace of decline is expected to ease during the remainder of 2009, according to the UNWTO.
“The negative trend in international tourism that emerged during the second half of 2008 intensified in 2009,” the organisation said.
“In view of the rapidly deteriorating global economic situation, economic growth prospects have repeatedly been adjusted downwards over the past six months.
“While at the time of the previous UNWTO forecast in January, the International Monetary Fund was still counting on positive growth over 2% for the world economy in 2009, a decline of 1.3% is now expected.”
“Tourism is seriously impacted, given the sharp reduction in business activity, decreasing disposable income and associated increased unemployment, particularly in key tourism source markets.
“Exchange rate fluctuations have added to the general uncertainty and business and consumer confidence have yet to recover.
“Furthermore, the level of advanced bookings, coupled with the reduction in airline capacity, make recovery before 2010 difficult.”
There is additional uncertainty regarding the future of the swine flu virus and its effect on demand in the short to medium term.
All regions except for Africa recorded a decrease in arrivals for the first four months of 2009, according to the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer.
Europe suffered a 10% decline as the majority of source markets have struggled with recession since the end of 2008.
Moreover, outbound tourism of the second largest market (UK) has endured the depreciation of the pound sterling, the UNWTO said.
Overall, the Americas (-5%) suffered due to the slowdown of the US both as a source market and a destination.
South America was the only sub-region outside of Africa to buck the general downward trend, registering +0.2%.
For Asia and the Pacific (-6%) the decline in demand has been faster than expected and is particularly severe when compared to results from recent years.
Although the decline in the Middle East is significant (-18%), complete data is not available and arrivals are still expected to be well above the 2007 levels.
The positive results in Africa (+3%) reflect the strength of North African destinations around the Mediterranean and the recovery of Kenya as one of leading sub-Saharan destinations.
The UNWTO estimates that worldwide receipts from international tourism reached $944 billion last year, up from $857 billion in 2007.
by Phil Davies
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