Visit Britain: 4% more inbound visits prediction in 2026 jeopardized by Gulf war

Visit Britain released its forecast for 2026, following first numbers for the year. It will however revise its 2025 estimate and 2026 forecast in mid-2026.

The global economy is forecast to grow by a modest 2.7% this year, just below the 2.9% estimated for 2025 (estimations were made prior to the Gulf war). The US is forecast to grow 2.5% and the EU 1.1%.

Uncertainty remains due to drivers such as oil price and trade conditions. The pound is forecast to fall 3% this year, which has been factored in. As ever, this is the central forecast and there are plausible outcomes and risks either side.

Visit Britain consequently predicts a moderate pickup in growth of visits to 4%, while spending are due to grow by 7%.

Long haul markets are due to resume growth, and forecast to grow slightly faster than Europe. The tourism agency sees some uncertainty about global economic prospects and considerable uncertainty about geopolitical factors as shown by the war in the Gulf. 

After a sluggish year from long haul in 2025 (-1%), a return to growth is assumed for 2026. This is partly due to economic prospects generally being brighter for these markets than for Europe, and also a reflection of the pattern that is often seen at the aggregate level of a slow year being followed by growth the next year. Last year, European inbound markets grew an estimated 4% up on 2024.

Risks

Flight bookings in the short term look mixed. At time of forecast, for January they were 4% up, February 3% down, and for March/April around on par (March down and April up due to Easter timing). These somewhat soft numbers have been factored in, although maturity of bookings in the available data is still low for most months as the UK heads to the key booking period. Looking broader, downside risks include non-economic (geopolitical, security, epidemiological) and economic (e.g. impact of US tariffs).

An upside risk is if the UK is able to maintain or gain competitive share, which would imply a higher forecast. Indeterminate risks include climatic (adverse weather; or UK as a more attractive proposition in summer), reputational factors, performance of competitors. But also the uncertainty about the UK and global economies.

Tourism State of the Nation for March 2026 sees a marked slowdown

The Tourism State of the Nation report for March 2026 points meanwhile to a decline in travel intentions.

Visit Britain recent trends are the following:
• Inbound: Flight data suggests that early 2026 was below 2025.
• Domestic: Indications of recent overnight trip taking have been slow, although Easter intentions were up on last year.

Forward looking trends are the following :
• Inbound: Overall expectations are being revised down, with huge uncertainty about prospects. Overall, flight on the book for the short-term are tracking below last year. Flights on the book for April are currently tracking 7% below 2026, for May 3% below, for June and July around on par (1% below), and tracking ahead for August.

There has been a boom in bookings from some long-haul source markets securing flights that do not transit through the Gulf, or before prices rise; a slump in net bookings from Gulf and India; steady from North America and slightly down from Europe.

• Domestic industry: domestic trip intentions are falling noticeably, although they are down for outbound too. The economic outlook has deteriorated suddenly as fuel prices and availability turned into a major concern.

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