Comment: The new face of the Middle East

The violent wave of discontent in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Syria and Libya led to many incoming tourists cancelling or postponing their holidays to the Middle East in 2011 as events created negative perceptions of the region as a whole. The ‘Arab Spring’ also impacted Israel as a result of which incoming tourism flows to the country slowed down in 2011 compared to the previous year.

Tensions threaten tourism development in Israel

Conflicts and tensions between Palestine and Israel have been ongoing in the last couple of years, drawing in other countries in the Persian Gulf (i.e. Lebanon). Events such as the 2006 Lebanon War and 2009 Operation Cast Lead also resulted in a decline in arrivals to Israel during these years.

Despite regional problems, arrivals to Israel still witnessed 4% volume growth in 2011 to reach 2.9 million trips, but this figure was compared to a 21% rise in 2010. The huge expatriate diaspora as well as tourists from the US and Russia visiting the country were among the main drivers behind this trend.

Between 2011 and 2016, the number of trips is expected to see an 8% volume CAGR rise to reach 4.2 million, although this growth looks to be slower than the 11% volume CAGR recorded during 2006-2011 when Israel was impacted by the global economic crisis. The forecast period decline is a reflection of the effect the political turmoil had on big tourism markets in the region (eg neighbouring Egypt), as well as on the country itself.

Although a ceasefire came into effect after a week of violence, the events which began in the West Bank’s streets and surrounding areas in November 2012 are expected to cause damage to tourism arrivals from key source markets in North America and Europe, with travellers cancelling their holidays. Concerns of a likely spillover effect and possible worsening of the fragile situation in the country may keep tourists away.

Burdened by the eurozone crisis, travellers from markets such as Italy, the UK and Spain are expected to shift their travel preferences. Israel is still considered an expensive destination compared to other destinations such as Turkey, Greece and Bulgaria, which could further affect the attractiveness of the country.

Syria on the brink of civil war

The unrest in Syria which first erupted in January 2011 and since then escalated severely to a civil war by the beginning of 2012 has tarnished the image of the country as a safe and stable destination which may prove difficult to restore. Prospects for tourism are therefore gloomy, with a difficult road ahead even if the conflict ends anytime soon.

In 2011 Syria recorded a 31% decline in the number of trips taken but as the crisis has worsened, 2012 is expected to be much more dramatic in terms of the fall in international arrivals to the country.

Looking ahead: The new face of the Middle East

While analysts strongly believe in the region’s resilience and capacity to recover swiftly from the recent crisis, current events cast a dark cloud on travel and tourism’s development and investments in the industry.

The region also faces some major challenges in light of the deteriorating economy in Europe. Europeans, which represent the main source of Middle Eastern arrivals, are likely to travel less or at least tighten their belts in light of continuing economic woes. In addition, added fears for political stability in this part of the world could leave the Middle East in disarray.

Tourists from fast-developing countries such as India and China are however gaining more interest in Israel, with arrivals from these markets exhibiting strong growth, up by 33% and 31%, respectively, in 2011. As a result, arrivals from China and India are anticipated to remain extremely dynamic going forward.

For further insight, please contact Nadejda Popova, senior analyst – travel and tourism, at: [email protected]