Forecasts for the Future – A Very Different World – Report
Croisette – Cannes Winter Destination only?
The 5th annual Sustainable Tourism report incorporates a number of forecasts for the future including those from the World Bank and a group of 11 top level global sustainable tourism executives.
The bank’s forecasts include the demise of an international community by 2025. “Power”, the bank says, “Will be more dispersed with the newer players bringing new rules of the game while risks will increase that the traditional Western alliances will weaken. Rather than emulating Western models of political and economic development, more countries may be attracted to China’s alternative development model.“
Other possibilities explored by the bank include “Opportunities for mass-casualty terrorist attacks using chemical, biological, or less likely, nuclear weapons will increase as technology diffuses and nuclear power (and possibly weapons) programmes expand. The practical and psychological consequences of such attacks will intensify in an increasingly globalized world.”
The sustainable tourism executives’ forecasts range from the oil price reaching an unsustainable level to “that by 2020 the portfolios of the biggest companies will have further expanded internationally to take advantage of the changing source markets” through “we will see industry innovation that today we cannot even imagine – beyond bio-fuel and sustainable concrete”.
The report authors, themselves predict a number of fundamental changes over the next forty years, including:
• Carbon certificates to allow travel businesses to trade
• Top source markets to be China, Russia, India, Brazil and the USA
• Tourism seasons and destinations will begin to change to pre-1920 era (eg South of France, Italy winter destinations only)
• Snow destinations will disappear as will a number of island destinations, delta destinations and hitherto winter sun destinations
• Airlines, other transport operators and tour operators will offer total carbon offsetting as a Unique Selling Point
• The growth of the Carbon Neutral Destination
The report is priced at:
Commercial entities & NGOs: UK£200, US$300, €240
Students & educational establishments: UK£100, US$150, €120
Any one of the 12 sections may be purchased individually at UK£25, US$38, €30 each.
VISION on Sustainable Tourism readers can benefit from a 50% discount on the above prices for orders made by 3 April 2009 ONLY
For further details and to order email: [email protected]
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