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IATA recorded 3.4% fall in air passenger demand in April due to Gulf war

Friday, 29 May 20263 min read
IATA recorded 3.4% fall in air passenger demand in April due to Gulf war

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released April 2026 global passenger traffic data, showing that worldwide demand was heavily impacted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), declined 3.4% compared to April 2025. Excluding the Middle East region, global demand would have increased by 1.2%.

Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), fell 2.9% year-over-year, while the overall load factor slipped 0.4 percentage points to 83.1%.

International traffic dropped 5.3% year-over-year, although demand rose 1.9% when excluding Middle Eastern carriers. International capacity declined 5.1%, with the load factor easing 0.2 percentage points to 83.9%.

Domestic demand remained unchanged from April 2025, while capacity rose 0.8%. Domestic load factor declined 0.7 percentage points to 81.9%.

The 46.6% collapse in demand for Middle East carriers due to the regional conflict was severe enough to drag global demand down by 3.4%,” said Willie Walsh, IATA Director General.The outlook for air transport remains highly volatile. Jet fuel prices more than doubled in April, putting upward pressure on airfares. Forward schedules indicate reduced capacity in the coming months as airlines respond to higher fuel costs and softer demand.”

Air Passenger Market in Detail — April 2026

Region

Share of Global RPK (%)

RPK Change (%)

ASK Change (%)

Load Factor Change (ppt)

Load Factor (%)

Total Market

100.0

-3.4

-2.9

-0.4

83.1

Africa

2.2

2.8

2.0

+0.6

77.7

Asia Pacific

34.4

1.7

0.7

+0.9

85.1

Europe

26.7

0.8

0.4

+0.4

85.4

Latin America & Caribbean

5.4

5.0

4.3

+0.5

82.9

Middle East

9.5

-46.6

-37.2

-12.5

70.6

North America

21.8

-0.3

0.3

-0.5

81.5

Share based on 2025 industry RPK.

Regional Breakdown — International Passenger Markets

International traffic fell 5.3% year-over-year, largely driven by the steep decline in Middle Eastern demand. Excluding the Middle East, international RPK increased 1.9%. North America remained flat, while all other regions posted growth.

Asia Pacific

Asia-Pacific airlines recorded a 3.0% increase in international demand year-over-year. Capacity rose 0.7%, and load factor reached a record 87.5% for April, up 1.9 percentage points. Traffic growth on Japan-China routes slowed amid ongoing political tensions.

Europe

European carriers posted a 0.9% increase in demand, while capacity rose 0.3%. Load factor improved 0.6 percentage points to 84.9%. Direct traffic between Europe and Asia surged 15.3% as travelers increasingly avoided connections through the Middle East.

North America

North American airlines reported flat demand growth year-over-year. Capacity declined 1.1%, while load factor improved 0.9 percentage points to 83.9%.

Middle East

Middle Eastern carriers experienced a dramatic 48.1% decline in demand year-over-year. Capacity dropped 38.4%, and load factor plunged 13.1 percentage points to 70.1%. The Iran conflict continued to weigh heavily on traffic, although the pace of decline moderated slightly compared to March following the implementation of a fragile ceasefire.

Latin America

Latin American airlines delivered the strongest regional growth, with demand rising 8.9% year-over-year. Capacity increased 7.2%, while load factor climbed 1.4 percentage points to 84.6%.

Africa

African carriers reported a 2.2% increase in demand. Capacity rose 1.2%, and load factor improved 0.7 percentage points to 77.9%.

Domestic Passenger Markets

Global domestic traffic was flat in April compared to the same month last year. Growth in Brazil, China, and Japan offset declines in Australia, India, and the United States. Load factors weakened across most major domestic markets, with the exception of China and Japan. Japan’s domestic capacity has now declined for eight consecutive months.

Domestic Market

Share of Global RPK (%)

RPK Change (%)

ASK Change (%)

Load Factor Change (ppt)

Load Factor (%)

Domestic Total

37.2

0.0

0.8

-0.7

81.9

Australia

0.8

-0.4

3.8

-3.4

79.8

Brazil

1.2

2.6

4.5

-1.5

79.6

China

11.3

1.2

0.9

+0.2

84.2

India

1.7

-2.9

2.3

-4.3

81.6

Japan

1.0

3.7

-1.4

+3.7

74.7

United States

13.6

-0.6

1.0

-1.2

79.6

The six domestic markets listed above account for approximately 29.6% of global RPKs and 79.4% of total domestic RPKs.