Stollznow Research report
All current research shows that the market for travel and tourism in Australia is static right up to 2014, with The Tourism Forecasting Committee from Tourism Australia saying: –
“Domestic visitor nights are forecast to remain relatively flat over the forecast period to 2014.
Competition from outbound travel destinations as well as other areas of expenditure is expected to constrain growth in domestic activity.
Visitor nights are forecast to contract by 3.3 per cent to 287 million in 2005.
Over the full forecast period to 2014, the number of visitor nights is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 0.9 per cent, to reach around 311 million.”
So, this is not good news at all and why is it happening?
The October 2005 Tourism Australia Forecast for domestic tourism attributes this static number of nights to a number of issues including: –
§ interest rate rises;
§ asset price bubbles;
§ increases in household savings;
§ changes in the labour market;
§ busier lifestyles;
§ competition from other goods and services;
§ a declining ‘share of wallet’ for tourism;
§ increasing fuel costs (which have recently declined);
§ more Australians travelling overseas; and
§ An increase in VFR rather than holiday travel.
Neil Stollznow, Director of Quantitative Research says “while these issues are certain to have an impact, we believe that a greater impact comes from the fact that the Australian population is static and workers at all levels only have a finite number of available days for holidays.”
“It is pretty straightforward to work out that unless Australia’s population increases dramatically or alternatively, the standard number of holidays increases from 20 days per annum to 25 days, there is no further opportunity of additional visitor nights, i.e. no opportunity to grow the supply of the market that the leisure market needs to grow – either in terms of people or holidays!”
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