AITO members make predictions for 2009

Members of the Association of Independent Tour Operators have unveiled their predictions for the industry in 2009.

Here is a selection of forecasts from these independent and specialist travel companies.

Sunvil Holidays MD Noel Josephides
“The price of holidays will largely depend on how savvy tour operators are. There are many contributing factors, including what rates holidays have been priced at and whether they bought their currency requirements in advance (especially the dollar) before the markets collapsed. Those operators that haven’t will inevitably have to deal with higher costs. Although fuel prices are slowly falling, the dollar has strengthened, partly offsetting any gain on the cost of fuel (which is paid for in dollars). Long haul dollar-based holidays are therefore expected to be around 15-20% more expensive next year if tour operators failed to purchase their currency forward when the rate was around $1.90 to the pound. The rise in price for cheaper accommodation in Europe (self-catering apartments especially) will be proportionately lower, so it’s likely that many travellers will stay closer to home.”

Kirker sales and marketing director Ted Wake
“City breaks are becoming increasingly popular in the winter – there is always plenty to do (regardless of the weather), and the cognoscenti know that a few days in one of Europe’s great classical cities is a relaxing and stimulating experience, more so because the best restaurants and museums are crowd-free. It’s also a great way to beat the winter blues.”

Voyages of Discovery and Swan Hellenic sales and marketing director Geoff Lawrence
“Ex-UK cruises have become increasingly popular and we predict they will do very well in the current climate, where rising air fares and airline uncertainty are a major concern for many holidaymakers. Britain is one of the very few countries globally where you can go on a no-fly cruise, and travellers are making the most of it, while helping to reduce their carbon footprint.”

Real Holidays product director Gwen Stephens Jones
“Homestays have always been a brilliant way to see India – and now, in these sterling-shy times, they represent great value too. They’re cheaper than most hotels, and nearly always sold on a
full board basis.”

African Conservation Experience founder Rob Harris
“It is highly likely that 2009 will see a continued increase in people wanting more from their holidays than a great tan and therefore I predict an increase in ‘voluntourism’ and learning holidays. 2008 figures also suggest that there will be a further increase in adult gap years. The credit crunch and recession forces people to reassess their lives and though money may be more scarce, the threat of redundancy or lowered moral in workplaces encourages employees to ask if they are really getting what they want out of life.”

Monaco Tourist Authority marketing manager Jean-François Gourdon
“As a result of environmental and economic concerns we expect to see short-haul travel enjoying a resurgence because tourists cannot commit the time, money or energy to a long flight. People will still want to seek out somewhere new, having ‘done’ Paris, Barcelona and Rome and so will explore places like Monaco. It is a great time to visit as some of the world’s most beautiful hotels are offering excellent deals.”

The Traveller MD Andreas Ekkeshis
“Partly due to continued airline instability and environmental concerns, our European group tours are all now available with a rail option from St Pancras or Ebbsfleet International, and this has been a hugely popular option since being introduced in summer 2008. With the advent of Rail Team Europe, in 2009 it will be easier than ever to book rail travel in Europe with limited fuss, and the sector will grow further.”

All Ways Pacific MD John Rankin
“As a specialist operator to Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands, we are seeing a trend towards shorter tours.”

Voyages Jules Verne head of product and marketing David Pattison
“We predict healthy bookings for trips with a strong nature theme and also trips based around exciting natural phenomena. Bookings to China for the 2009 solar eclipse are buoyant and, as ever, the northern lights in Norway, Costa Rica for its wide range of ecological experiences, and tours to see the pandas of China remain popular options. Such trips are likely to do well regardless of the economic climate.”

Explore MD Ashley Toft
“Our Cycle product is absolutely booming: forward bookings are up by 50%, and many of those are on long-haul destinations. Hot tips for 2009 include Cognac, reachable by train and one of the prettiest but least known French regions, Cambodia, taking in the Mekong Delta and Angkor temples, and our Moroccan mountain biking programme, which is beginning to sell very strongly.”

Wilderness Scotland director Stevie Christie
“With the credit crunch affecting many people’s holiday plans, we anticipate individuals, couples and families seeking adventure breaks in 2009 will look closer to home. We expect more holiday takers will realise Scotland is Europe’s adventure capital and choose trips here over travelling to destinations such as France and Italy, saving hundreds of pounds on their travel costs.”

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