Politics shapes tourism flows between Canada and the U.S.A.

Independence movement in Alberta boosts US arrivals to this Canadian province

Saturday, 07 Feb, 2026 0

Alberta’s renewed independence debate is not only stirring political tensions across Canada but also reshaping tourism patterns between the province and the United States, highlighting how geopolitics can influence in some ways travel patterns.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith recently emphasized that U.S. officials should respect Canadian sovereignty following reports that Alberta separatists held meetings with members of the Trump administration. The discussions, reportedly framed as “fact-finding” by supporters of the Alberta Prosperity Project, have fueled controversy nationwide in Canada.

Although the prospect of Alberta leaving Canada remains unlikely, the political narrative surrounding independence, with potential referendums and statehood discussions, had some influence on tourism trends.

Data from Statistics Canada shows that American arrivals to Alberta increased by 1,234 visitors in November 2025 compared with the previous year, making it the only Canadian province to record a four-digit gain in U.S. travelers during that month. This contrasts sharply with declines across Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, where cross-border travel fell. Ontario alone saw a decline of almost 120,000 US residents in November 2025.

Industry observers say Alberta’s strong cultural and economic ties with the United States, particularly through energy, agriculture and outdoor tourism, may be insulating it from broader declines in bilateral travel.

Political rhetoric portraying Alberta as closely aligned with American values has also attracted attention among some U.S. travelers. Especially as symbols supporting potential statehood are more visible across the province. It includes among others bumper stickers and banners of Alberta becoming the “51st U.S. State”.

No improvement expected in 2026 in Canada-U.S.A tourism flows

The broader Canada-U.S. tourism landscape, however, remains challenging. In December 2025, Statistics Canada pointed to a drop of Canadian residents by over 30% by car and by 18.7% by air. Airlines are responding by reducing capacity, with WestJet and other major carriers removing roughly 450,000 seats on U.S. routes at the start of 2026’s first quarter.

Analysts suggest that trade tensions, currency fluctuations and political uncertainty will continue to dampen cross-border demand most of 2026.

Political developments elsewhere have further underscored the unusual moment in North American relations. Calls for Minnesota to join Canada following recent events in Minneapolis, along with comments from U.S. officials suggesting openness to working with an independent Alberta, illustrate the increasingly symbolic role of territorial rhetoric in public discourse. And lasting damages that it creates among neighboring nations.