Central Asia leads global aviation growth tells OAG

Two giants: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

International capacity has followed a similarly strong trajectory, rising from 6.4 million seats to 34.5 million over the same period, with an average annual growth rate of 8.8%. Together, these trends underscore the scale and durability of Central Asia’s aviation boom.

Kazakhstan dominates the regional aviation landscape, accounting for more than half of all airline seat capacity, despite representing just 25% of Central Asia’s population based on the latest United Nations data.

Uzbekistan ranks second, with 25% of total capacity, while also being the region’s most populous country, home to 37.1 million people—roughly 44% of Central Asia’s population. The region’s demographics further reinforce its growth potential: the average age is just 26.6 years, suggesting sustained demand for air travel as incomes rise and economies continue to develop.

Market liberalization has been a critical catalyst, opening Central Asian skies to low-cost carriers and foreign airlines and fundamentally reshaping competition.

The region has also benefited from geopolitical shifts, particularly the rerouting of Russian outbound travelers through Central Asia following airspace closures linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine. The latter cut off effectively direct access to Europe for Russian carriers. Today, 125 airlines operate in Central Asia, although carriers based in the region still account for 71% of total capacity.

Low-cost carriers have been among the most transformative forces. In 2015, Central Asia had the lowest LCC penetration rate in the world at just 4.6%. By 2025, that share has climbed to 21%, with further growth expected.

The expansion of low-cost services has made air travel more affordable and accessible to a growing middle class, unlocking demand that had long been suppressed. Kazakhstan’s FlyArystan exemplifies this shift: the carrier has become Central Asia’s largest airline, operating 10 million seats and capturing 15% of the regional market. Its sister airline, Air Astana, follows closely with a 14% share. Other significant players include SCAT Airlines, Uzbekistan Airways, and foreign competitors such as Ural Airlines, Turkish Airlines, and Aeroflot.

Russia war in Ukraine seen as an opportunity for Central Asia

Network strategies vary widely across the region. Domestic aviation dominates in larger, geographically expansive markets, accounting for 71% of Kazakhstan’s capacity and 66% of Turkmenistan’s.

By contrast, international connectivity—particularly to East and Central Europe—plays a more prominent role for Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Despite shared borders, intra-regional connectivity remains limited: only 4% of Central Asia’s total seat capacity is allocated to flights within the region, highlighting an underdeveloped cross-Central Asian network.

Russia remains the most important international market for Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. It is driven by labor migration, expanded aviation freedoms, and the strategic reorientation of Russian carriers toward eastern markets. Kazakhstan, however, has pursued a more diversified approach, actively reducing its reliance on Russia while expanding capacity to Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and destinations across Asia. Increased competition from non-Russian airlines has also altered traffic flows, with routes that once transited Russia now shifting to hubs such as Istanbul, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi.

Uzbekistan may be following a similar path. Air capacity between Uzbekistan and the UAE has increased by 376% since 2019, fueled by a new bilateral air services agreement and rapidly rising travel demand. The surge points to a broader geographic focus in the country’s aviation strategy.

Several forces are converging to sustain Central Asia’s aviation momentum: liberalized markets replacing state-controlled airline systems, rapid growth in low-cost carriers, significant investment in airport infrastructure, and rising levels of economic activity and tourism. With large populations, improving incomes, and historically underserved air networks, Central Asia holds substantial latent demand—positioning it as one of the most promising aviation markets globally.

All data cited in this article is sourced from OAG Schedules Analyser.