Cirium forecast: 45,000 new aircraft deliveries over next 20 years
Aviation analytics firm Cirium has published its annual Fleet Forecast, revealing the future outlook of the global aircraft market.
The independent forecast, now in its twelfth year, reveals that 45,900 aircraft are predicted to be delivered globally over the next 20 years, equating to a total value of $3.3 trillion.
Much of this is driven by Asia airlines’ growth.
This year’s forecast by Cirium Ascend Consultancy, comes as the aviation industry continues to face supply chain issues delaying aircraft deliveries
The report is projecting 5% fewer deliveries between 2024-2027 due to a shortage of components (compared to 2023).
Data also reveals that during Q4 2024, a total of 26,100 aircraft are currently in service, which is up 5% on January 2020.
This rise has been driven by the delivery and operation of single-aisle aircraft (up 13%), with the number of twin-aisle aircraft at 3% below pre-pandemic levels.
The number of active regional jets also remains 8% down on pre-pandemic levels.
Looking ahead to the next 20 years, Cirium’s Fleet Forecast also reveals that of the 45,900 new aircraft are set to be delivered between 2024 and 2043.
About 98% will be passenger aircraft.
Airbus and Boeing will remain the two largest commercial aircraft OEMs, delivering an estimated 84% of aircraft between them
China based manufacturer COMAC is forecast to take a 6% share of demand.
There is about $180 billion of demand for other plane makers including ATR and Embraer.
Asia airlines as a whole will continue to be the leading segment for aircraft growth, taking about 45% of deliveries over the next 20 years.
China alone will contribute about 20% of this, not far behind the North American total.
Rob Morris, Head of Consultancy at Cirium Ascend Consultancy, said: “As we continue to enter the next cycle of growth for the aviation industry, our new Fleet Forecast illustrates the continued demand for new aircraft, as airlines look to renew and expand their fleets.”
“However, it is clear that supply chain issues and other manufacturing will continue to cause delays.”
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