Flight delays warning as Europe admits it’s struggling to cope with rising demand

Europe is struggling to cope with a record number of flights this year, resulting in longer delays for passengers, according to a new study.

Eurocontrol said that without urgent action, the network will be unable to cope with the demand for flights predicted by 2040, leaving around 160 million people grounded.

At the ACI general assembly held in Brussels on Tuesday, Eurocontrol director general Eamonn Brennan said the first five months of 2018 saw much higher delays than in recent years.

Traffic rose 3.4% year-on-year and en-route air traffic flow management delays rose from 0.46 minutes per flights to 1.05 minutes. Strike action and other disruptive events accounted for 28% of delays and 27% were due to bad weather, but 55% were attributed to staff and capacity issues.

These were worst in Germany, France and the Low Countries.

Referring to Eurocontrol’s latest study, Challenges of Growth, Brennan said: "Europe is already struggling to cope with the levels of traffic this year. Our most likely scenario predicts a growth of 1.9% a year between now and 2040. That means 16.2 million flights a year. But it could be as much as 19.5 million flights a year under our highest growth scenario.

"On our most likely scenario, there won’t be enough capacity for approximately 1.5 million flights or 160 million passengers in 2040."

He said there was time to address the issues raised in the study, but added: "Providing more capacity, and especially on this scale, requires long-term planning therefore I think we need to address the issue as a matter of urgency."

A growth in air travel of 1.9% a year would lead to a 53% increase in flights by 2040 to 16.2 million a year. However, the study warns the increase could be as high as 84%.

The UK, Turkey, France and Germany will each see more than 3,000 additional flights a day, according to the study, and current expansion plans – including the proposed third runway at London/s Heathrow – will not be enough.

On the most likely scenario, 1.5 million flights carrying 160 million passengers will be unable to fly by 2040.

The study estimates that by 2040, 16 airports will be highly congested operating at close to capacity for much of the day (up from six airports today).

As a result of this congestion the number of passengers delayed by one to two hours will grow from around 50,000 each day now to around 470,000 a day in 2040, it said.

Aside from building additional runways, the study looks at how additional airport capacity can be delivered through other means. These include technology innovation, schedule smoothing, using larger aircraft and multi-modal approaches.

Other topics covered in the study include the impact of climate change and the expected rise in unmanned aircraft systems, or drones.

"The Challenges of Growth studies are an immensely valuable forecast and this latest edition is no exception. This latest edition is very clear – people cannot continue to presume that air traffic growth – and the economic benefits that come with it – can happen without a corresponding increase in airport capacity on the ground," said ACI Europe director general Olivier Jankovec.