Forecasters agree: bad hurricane season ahead
Federal forecasters warned this year’s hurricane season that starts June 1 will be a bad one after a relatively quiet season when no hurricanes made landfall on a US coast last year.
“The announcement came in a news conference at Reagan National Airport amid dire warnings from a host of federal government officials about complacency after last year’s quiet season,” said wire reports.
“Last year was an unexpectedly easy season,” Department of Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said. “There’s no guarantee that this season is going to be anything less than tough. . . . It is a big mistake to count on being lucky.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted that 13 to 17 named storms will form in the Atlantic basin this year.
The NOAA hurricane forecast was the latest this spring to predict a stormy season. An average season has 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes and two of those becoming major storms, NOAA said.
Last year had 10 named storms and five hurricanes — two of which were major, Category 3 or higher, said forecasters at Colorado State University.
In April, Colorado State experts predicted 17 named storms for this year, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes. The university plans to update its forecast next week, with little change expected.
On 8 May, AccuWeather.com, the weather agency based in State College, Pa., predicted 13 or 14 named storms for this year, with three or more Category 3 hurricanes and six or seven storms making US landfall. A day later, the season’s first named storm, subtropical system Andrea, formed off the Georgia coast but quickly dissipated.
Forecasters are still recovering from erroneous predictions that much of 2006 would be a busy hurricane season.
“Our August-only forecast was a bust,” Colorado State’s experts said at the end of that season.
They were fooled by the rapid and unforeseen development over the summer of El Niño — a warming of the water in the Pacific off the coast of South America. Such warming can produce wind conditions over the Atlantic Ocean that are detrimental to hurricane formation.
Report by David Wilkening
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