Holiday Travel is for the Birds
For the first time since 2002, fewer Americans will take to the roads, rails and air to celebrate, according to AAA, the largest U.S. motorist group. About 1.2 percent fewer people expect to travel during the period, and 7.2 percent fewer plan to fly, AAA said.
That’s a reversal from last year, when Thanksgiving travel reached a record even as gasoline prices surged and airfares had their biggest one-month jump. This holiday season, gasoline prices are at the lowest level since February 2005.
“It’s telling us just how much the overall picture has deteriorated,†said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight, citing lower consumer confidence, rising unemployment and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 41 percent drop in the past year.
An expected 41 million people in the U.S. will travel at least 50 miles (80 kilometers) from home starting tomorrow through Nov. 30, AAA said. Travelers taking buses and trains may increase 5.8 percent.
The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline is $1.91, down 54 percent from a record $4.11 on July 15, according to AAA. A year ago, it was $3.09.
Airfares climbed an average of 4 percent in the past 12 months, according to AAA, with Delta Air Lines Inc., the largest U.S. carrier, and its competitors also adding or boosting fees for checking luggage, reserving certain seats and changing reservations. Some carriers are charging for beverages, pillows and blankets. The increased cost of flying compared with the reduced price of gasoline explains why air travel will decline more this week, Gault said.
“Consumers are cutting back on anything they perceive as not being essential,†he said. “In particular, on big-ticket items.†Major U.S. airlines also have trimmed capacity about 10 percent to help stem losses from record fuel prices earlier this year.
“Travelers would rather stay home than face the many new charges, including increased ticket-change fees and baggage fees, that the airlines are now imposing on them,†said Tom Parsons, chief executive officer of Bestfares.com, a discount travel Web site.
The Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade group, expects the number of travelers to fall 10 percent to 24 million during an extended holiday period of Nov. 21 through Dec. 2. It would be the first drop in seven years.
Fewer planes and fewer travelers may ease crowding in airports and congestion on runways, said David Stempler, president of the Air Travelers Association, a passenger advocacy group based in Potomac, Maryland.
“The planes themselves will be congested, but everything else should run more smoothly,†he said.
Source: Bloomberg
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