Phocuswright: Global travel growth shifts toward emerging markets in 2025

A US$11.7 trillion power in global GDP

At a macroeconomic level, the scale of the sector is striking. Travel and tourism is expected to generate more than $11.7 trillion in global GDP in 2025, accounting for roughly one in every ten dollars spent worldwide and supporting an estimated 371 million jobs. International visitor spending alone is projected to hit a record $2.1 trillion this year, finally surpassing its pre-pandemic peak. Yet Phocuswright cautions that the rebound remains uneven, with clear differences in maturity and momentum across regions.

North America and Europe are entering a phase of stabilization after two years of rapid expansion. These regions continue to benefit from strong domestic demand and well-developed travel ecosystems, but growth rates are moderating.

Asia Pacific, by contrast, remains the industry’s primary engine of expansion, driven by population scale, rising incomes and the full reopening of international travel corridors. Emerging markets in Latin America and the Middle East are also accelerating, albeit from a smaller base, as investment in aviation, hospitality and digital infrastructure pays dividends.

At the country level, the United States remains the world’s largest travel market, with bookings forecast at $506.8 billion in 2025. However, its growth has slowed as faster gains shift toward Asia and other emerging economies. China and Japan rank as the second- and third-largest markets globally, with Japan standing out for a near 10% year-over-year surge—one of the strongest rebounds among major travel economies.

In Europe, Germany, the United Kingdom and France continue to anchor regional demand, providing stability even as growth is outpaced elsewhere. The United Arab Emirates, India and Saudi Arabia are leading gains across the Middle East and parts of Asia, reflecting aggressive tourism strategies and expanding middle classes. Meanwhile, double-digit growth in Brazil, Mexico and Russia highlights a broader rebalancing, as rising markets capture an increasing share of both total and online travel bookings.

(Source: Phocuswright- screenshot presentation Global Travel)

Phocuswright’s 2025 outlook points to an industry that is no longer defined solely by its traditional powerhouses. While mature markets remain critical in scale, the center of gravity is gradually shifting toward faster-growing economies, signaling a more diversified and competitive global travel landscape in the years ahead.

For more in-depth analysis and data including longer-term predictions, travel operators can become an Open Access subscriber to use the Phocal Point market sizing data tool and to access all reports in the Phocuswright Research library.