TravelMole Comment: Thailand’s recovery after political protests

TravelMole UK reporter Debbie Ward has just returned from Thailand Travel Mart in Bangkok. Here she outlines how the destination is coping after recent unrest.

"Only a handful of international tourists were on the smart new train link I took between Bangkok airport and the city centre when I attended the recent Thailand Travel Mart.

The new line can handle up to 50,000 passengers a day but, come peak season, how many will be filling its newly unwrapped seats?

Thailand’s capital appeared as fun and frenetic as ever and I certainly had no qualms about flitting between my usual city shopping haunts, even with the Bangkok Post warning of further political tension.

But, with economic conditions making tourists even more cautious about where they spend their cash this year, the element of doubt following Spring’s violent protests could linger longer for others.

When I asked hoteliers at TTM how they expected peak occupancies to be affected some looked confused. "The trouble was in April and May" was a common answer. "It’s over now".

But Funway Holidays Far East product development director Melissa Tilling, also attending TTM, warned against complacency.

She told me it’s difficult to track the destination’s recovery as all Far East bookings are down but said Thailand demand hadn’t materialised over the usual lead-in.

"Some think that the business will still come in but unless there’s some tactical catch-up on air fares and rates I don’t think it will build to a satisfying high season.

"I think the hotels have reached a kind of offer fatigue where for them it’s been going on for a year, year and a half, either the economic situation or Thailand’s specific problems.

"I think the market always responds to discounting and they should be getting over that fatigue because what else is there? There’s either a disproportionate spend on marketing or there is price."

Tilling was pleased with the outcome of TTM, managing to secure three-for-two and even two-for-one night offers with the promise of Funway marketing initiatives but she said it hadn’t been easy.

Among the more pragmatic hoteliers, a Sheraton manager told me she was expecting a slower start to 2011 but added: "The beauty of Thailand is, it always bounces back.”

How quickly it bounces back could well, as Tilling predicts, be down to market stimuli.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand’s UK office has been taking positive steps including running a major TV and radio campaign backed by Kuoni, Travel 2 and Gold Medal last month.

Trade marketing manager Chris Lee is optimistic. "There’s was a pick up in bookings in September and we know there’s an ever decreasing booking lead-in period.

"If we look at where Thailand is sitting, trading about 3% down from January to August, we’re very much on a par with the best performing long-haul destinations."

He adds: "If you look, Thailand has more and stronger offers than any other destination."

At TTM, TAT governor Suraphon Svetasreni admitted the country had lost about 20-25% of expected international arrivals for the two to three months around the political protests.

She announced a major domestic advertising campaign to make the country "less dependent on international tourism" but is still targeting 15.5 million total arrivals in 2011, up 9% on this year’s expectations.

TAT’s UK office is itself hoping to see a 3% increase for 2010.

Much rests on peace around Thailand’s elections in November and a resulting political stability.

As Tilling says, "the opportunity of a government with a clear mandate is better than the risk of any trouble"."