UN Climate Scientists Predict Fundamental Change in Tourism Industry

The latest UN IPCC climate change report firms up on its earlier predictions and forecasts a very different tourism industry within the next 20 years. Against a background of threatened biodiversity, melting glaciers, higher seawater levels, more droughts, storms, global hunger and disease, it says the tourism industry will change.

For winter sports, threatened by melting glaciers, options, set out in the report include diversification of tourism attractions & revenues; shifting ski slopes to higher altitudes and glaciers; artificial snow-making; integrated planning; linkages with other sectors and financial incentives including subsidies and tax credits. The report also recommends the marketing of new attractions and the involvement of wider groups of stakeholders.

It is clear that today’s summer sunshine destinations will also be threatened by excessively high temperatures and by drought.

The cause? Says the report “Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 in 2005 exceed by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years. Global increases in CO2 concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel use, with land-use change providing another significant but smaller contribution. There is very high confidence that the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming”.

The report is broadly optimistic about our chances of mitigating the global warming threats – “Studies indicate that there is high agreement and much evidence of substantial economic potential for the mitigation of global GHG emissions over the coming decades that could offset the projected growth of global emissions or reduce emissions below current levels”

Particularly at risk are:

– the Arctic, because of the impacts of high rates of projected warming on natural systems and human communities
– Africa, because of low adaptive capacity and projected climate change impacts
– small islands, where there is high exposure of population and infrastructure to projected climate change impacts
– Asian and African megadeltas, due to large populations and high exposure to sea level rise, storm surges and river flooding.

Included in the report’s predictions are:

Africa – by 2020 between 75 and 250m people will be exposed to increased water stress. By the end of the century, projected sea water rise will affect coastal areas.

Asia – by 2050’s freshwater will decrease and coastal areas will be subject to increased flooding.

Australia & New Zealand –by 2020 significant loss of biodiversity (including the Great Barrier Reef dramatically increased coastal flooding by 2050’s.

Europe – storminess & sea level rise, glacier retreat, very, very hot & drought conditions in southern Europe,

Latin America – by mid-century gradual replacement of tropical forest by savannah in east Amazonia, People at risk of hunger projected to increase.

North America – competition for over-allocated water resources, further challenges from increased heatwaves, coastal communities to be severely stressed by climate change and pollution.

Polar Regions – vulnerable ecosystems threatened in both polar regions.

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