US pandemic could cost tourism $683 billion
US states that rely on tourism and entertainment for much of their economy would likely be the hardest hit during a severe influenza pandemic, with Nevada and Hawaii the most impacted areas, according to a new report.
The Trust for America’s Health projected a $683 billion economic loss nationally during a pandemic, which is about 5.5% of the goods and services produced in the US.
The number is comparable to a previous analysis conducted for the US Congress, but the latest report is the first to break down the impact by state.
Nevada’s economy could take a hit of more than 8%, while Hawaii’s economic output could fall by about 6.6%. Four other states — Alaska, Wyoming, Nebraska and Louisiana — also stand to take impacts of greater than 6% in their gross domestic product.
“In a pandemic, we will see people avoiding discretionary travel and avoiding large gatherings for the legitimate fear of contagion,” Jeffrey Levi, executive director of Trust for America’s Health, told the AP. “It’s a natural reaction not to want to be in large groups when there is an easily transmittable disease afoot.”
The organization predicted that the economies of Virginia and Maryland would fare the best among the states but still face significant declines of more than 5%, while Washington, D.C., could face a 4.6% decline.
Mr Levi said economies that rely more on the government tend to be more stable under any kind of economic stress. Even though a lot of people won’t work, many government workers would continue to get paid. Often, the private sector is not able to absorb that expense, he said.
There have been three pandemics during the past century in the US.
A pandemic comparable to the most serious — 1918 — could sicken 90 million people and kill about 2 million. It could also last up to 18 months with spikes that last six to eight weeks each.
Trust for America’s Health considered how a severe pandemic would impact consumer demand for products and services. For instance, tourism and entertainment could experience an 80% decline in demand. A comparable decline could occur for hotels and restaurants.
Trust for America’s Health conducts research and advocates for steps it believes improves public health.
Report by David Wilkening
David
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