Is European air transport heading into a jet fuel crunch soon?

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is triggering mounting pressure on jet fuel supply across Europe, with early signs of rationing, rising costs, and initial flight cancellations.

While Europe oil supply is less dependent of the blockade of Hormuz Strait than Asia or Africa, the European air transport sector remains heavily reliant on Middle Eastern imports, with around half of the jet fuel used across the continent sourced from Gulf countries. With maritime traffic disrupted, that supply chain is now severely constrained.

Airports in several European countries have begun rationing fuel, while airlines are already passing on higher costs to passengers through increased fares.

In just one month, jet fuel prices have doubled. As margins tighten, carriers have started canceling less profitable routes, and concerns are escalating that aircraft could be grounded within weeks if the situation persists.

Facing the risk of a full-blown shortage, airlines and airport operators are urging the European Union to implement emergency measures.

These include temporary suspension of certain aviation taxes to ease financial pressure, as well as coordinated joint fuel purchasing at the EU level. Similar mechanisms were used during the Covid-19 crisis for medical supplies and in 2022 for natural gas procurement following disruptions linked to the war in Ukraine.

Joint purchasing could help avoid internal competition between EU member states and strengthen negotiating power in tight global markets. While such a strategy has never been applied to oil or jet fuel before, the current geopolitical context may push the European Commission to consider it—not only for aviation fuel but potentially for other critical commodities like gas or fertilizers.

Limited Refining Capacity and Rising Fears of Shortages

The uncertainty of having aircraft flying has also a psychological effect on consumers’ demand. While some passengers remain cautiously optimistic about their travel plans, others fear cancellations or even a halt in flights.

Limited refining capacity is indeed an issue in many European countries. As an example, French government has called on refiners to ramp up production, but the scope for doing so is limited. Of the country’s six mainland refineries, only one is currently able to increase output, and only by around 10%—far from enough to offset the supply shock.

Industry leaders across Europe are now calling for a longer-term strategy to strengthen Europe’s energy sovereignty. Expanding refining capabilities and diversifying supply sources are increasingly seen as essential to avoid future disruptions.

Warnings from energy executives suggest the situation could deteriorate rapidly. If the conflict and blockade continue beyond a few months, significant shortages of jet fuel and other petroleum products could emerge by May, forcing stricter rationing measures.

As global demand remains high and supply chains fragile, the coming weeks will be critical for Europe’s aviation sector. Without swift intervention or a resolution to the geopolitical crisis, the risk of widespread disruption to air travel is becoming increasingly real.

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