Europe holds steady as long-haul travel softens from China, Brazil and Canada

The latest Long-Haul Travel Barometer (3/2025), released by the European Travel Commission (ETC) and Eurail BV, reveals that global long-haul travel demand for September to December 2025 has slightly weakened. The Barometer highlights that 55% of respondents planning an overseas trip—down four points from last year.

The shift reflects growing caution among travelers, particularly in China, Brazil, and Canada, where fewer people are willing to commit to long-distance journeys. Yet, within this global slowdown, Europe stands firm.

Intentions to visit the continent remain steady, reinforcing its enduring appeal in a turbulent world. Europe’s reputation as the world’s safest destination continues to be a decisive factor for travelers, even as markets show diverging trends. Demand is growing in the United States and South Korea, holding steady in Brazil and Australia, slowing in China and Canada, and ticking up slightly in Japan.

Diverging Demand Across Markets

While 38% of respondents in top long-haul markets plan to visit Europe in the coming months—unchanged from 2024—the headline figure conceals shifting sentiment beneath the surface.

China remains Europe’s strongest source market, with 69% expressing travel intent, though that figure has dropped from 83% last year as short-haul options gain traction amid economic caution. Brazil, too, continues to rank high at 46%, just two points lower year-on-year, with cost concerns tempering enthusiasm but not erasing the desire for travel. Australia shows a modest increase to 37% from 33%, while Canada slips to 35% from 39%, reflecting heightened caution amid domestic uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the United States and South Korea are bright spots, with intentions up sharply to 29% and 33%, driven by confidence in Europe’s stability. Japan, still lagging behind at 20%, edges upward from 17% last year—a slow but steady recovery.

Safety and Affordability Define Choices

The research confirms that Europe remains the safest region globally—topping rankings for political stability, personal security, and low risk of natural or man-made crises. That can sound surprising as the continent seems to be on the brink of a war under Russia regular incursions into the EU territory.

Safety continues to be the leading factor influencing destination choice, followed by iconic attractions and well-developed infrastructure. Yet affordability remains a significant hurdle for overseas travelers, cited by 42% of respondents. Younger travelers are the most price-sensitive, with 61% naming cost as their biggest barrier.

Most visitors now plan to spend between €100 and €200 per person per day, and fewer are willing to exceed €200 than in 2024. The decline is steepest among Chinese and Brazilian travelers, where the share expecting to spend above €200 has fallen from 38% to 25% in China and from 45% to 38% in Brazil.

Nordic Momentum and Sustainable Travel

Europe’s perennial favorites—France (38%), Italy (31%), the UK (26%), Germany (25%), and Spain (24%)—remain at the top of travelers’ wish lists.

However, Northern destinations are gaining remarkable traction. Norway has seen interest climb from 9% to 12%, Finland from 7% to 10%, and Iceland from 5% to 8%, fueled by growing curiosity about nature-based travel and the Northern Lights season. The trend also points toward diversification, with 73% of travelers planning multi-country itineraries. Chinese respondents stand out, expecting to visit an average of 5.5 destinations compared with 3.8 last year.

Sustainable mobility continues to shape travel within Europe. Among visitors staying in a single country, 38% now plan to travel by train and 32% by car, both higher than last year, while full-service flights have declined sharply by 18%. The shift, most visible among Chinese tourists, reflects a preference for flexible, eco-friendly ways of exploring.

Commenting on the findings, Miguel Sanz, President of the European Travel Commission, said: “Safety and stability remain Europe’s strongest advantages in an uncertain world. At the same time, this research reminds us that affordability must be addressed if we are to keep Europe accessible to younger generations. The growing appeal of destinations such as the Nordics shows how we can diversify demand and spread tourism more evenly. By acting together, European destinations can ensure that Europe continues to be a secure, attractive, and sustainable destination for travelers from around the globe.”

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