Fitch confirms Macao rating amid gaming-driven further recovery

Gaming Tourism Recovery

Fitch forecasts GDP growth will moderate to 4.0% in 2026 from 4.7% in 2025, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) recovering to nearly 89% of its 2019 level this year. The rating agency expects gaming tourism growth to slow but remain solid in 2026, supported by favorable visa-entry policies, expanded cultural and entertainment offerings, and continued non-gaming investments.

A significant slowdown in China’s economy weighing on consumer sentiment and travel spending, poses a key downside risk to Macao’s gaming tourism outlook. Macao remains exposed to policy shifts affecting the gaming tourism sector.

Mass-Market Resilience boosts gaming revenues

Fitch expects the mass market, particularly the premium mass segment, comprising non-VIP customers with higher bets than average, will remain relatively resilient in 2026, assuming solid visitation from mainland China. Macao’s Gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth accelerated from May 2025 after a softer start to the year.

Mass-market GGR in 2025 exceeded the 2019 level by about 14%, with inbound visitors reaching a record high of 40 million. VIP gaming gained more traction in 2H25 amid continued restructuring of junket operations and the closure of satellite casinos, although VIP GGR remained roughly half of its 2019 level.

The economy remains meanwhile highly dependent on gaming, which accounted for 43.3% of gross value added in the economy in 2024.

Fitch expects the government will continue to push for the development of other sectors, for example by deepening the Macao-Hengqin integration and overseeing non-gaming investments by the six gaming concessionaries.

However, human capital constraints and skill mismatches will limit Macao’s ability to build its competitiveness in nascent non-gaming sectors in the near term. Limited additions to hotel capacity and air connectivity will also constrain faster diversification of visitor source markets.