Global Skepticism Inhibits Travel Growth
The latest edition of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer confirms the rapid slowdown of international tourism growth since mid 2008, reflecting the impact of rising oil prices at the beginning of the year and the deterioration of the economic situation as well as of consumer confidence in recent months. Overall growth for 2008 is still projected at around 2%, building on the strong results of the first five months.
UNWTO’s “Resilience Committee” will support its Members with accurate economic analysis and response mechanisms. The tourism sector’s effective response to the economic downturn will be discussed at the Global Ministers’ Summit at World Travel Market today (London, UK, 11 November). A series of regional response groups will follow, starting in the Middle East (Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, 23-24 November).
After a sound start to the year (international tourist arrivals worldwide
averaged 5.7% from January-April), growth fell below 2% in June, July and
August as the high price of oil and rising inflation took their toll, and
together with recession fears, squeezed travel budgets. For the first eight
months of 2008, growth averaged 3.7% compared with the same period in 2007
while for the year as a whole it is now projected to be at around 2%
globally.
And, as the current troubled economic scenario is expected to continue into
2009, UNWTO’s initial forecast for next year is an even more modest
performance.
Asia and the Pacific was the region whose growth has deteriorated most
rapidly so far and after 18 consecutive months of sustained growth,
declining from March onwards and even sliding into negative growth in
August. Growth in Europe also stagnated over the northern hemisphere summer months.
The Americas, Africa and the Middle East weakened as well, but the slowdown
was much less pronounced.
Although regional trends may vary as new data becomes available, the
Barometer identifies the following regional trends:
-Europe currently stands at +2% for the first eight months of 2008
(well down from the 5% growth of the last two years), and the slowdown has
not spared any of its four subregions.
-Asia and the Pacific’s growth (+4%) is also well behind its 2007
level, with Oceania and North-East Asia suffering the brunt of the downturn
in demand.
-The Americas has so far performed better than in 2007 with 6% through the first eight months. The region appears to have only experienced
a modest slowdown in July and August.
-The Middle East is once again the star performer in 2008 so far, with growth for the period January through August estimated at 17%. Data,
though, is still limited which may lead to the need of revising this
estimate.
-Africa’s growth is currently running at less than half the level achieved in 2007, and this is still largely thanks to North Africa’s strong performance as in Subsaharan Africa average growth has been pulled down noticeably as compared to the 2007 growth rate.
Source: UNWTO
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