Middle East war pushes airfares higher, threatening global tourism growth

Rising tensions and the ongoing war in the Middle East could threaten global tourism growth in 2026 as surging oil prices push airline costs higher and trigger airfare increases across several long-haul routes.

The travel industry entered the year with strong momentum, with international travel expected to continue its post-pandemic expansion. However, the escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel and the USA has raised concerns about the stability of energy markets and the potential knock-on effects for aviation and tourism as the entire Gulf region is now involved into the conflict.

Oil prices have consequently risen sharply since the start of the hostilities. On Monday, January 9, crude surpassed $115 a barrel as the situation worsens. This represents in 10 days time a 30% hike.

A major concern is the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. The narrow waterway along Iran is now closed to shipping with an immediate impact on global fuel prices.

For airlines, higher oil prices translate directly into rising jet fuel costs, one of the industry’s largest operating expenses. Jet fuel has recently surged to near four-year highs, putting pressure on airline profitability and forcing carriers to reconsider pricing strategies.

Early signs of fare increases already appeared last week on several international routes. Flights between Asia and Europe have seen sharp price hikes after airspace closures and reduced capacity through Gulf hubs forced airlines to reroute services.

Skyscanner on Monday March 9, 2026 points for example to a single one-way in economy class at €1,650 on average from London to Singapore on a non-stop flight between Europe and Asia -either with Malaysia Airlines via Kuala Lumpur or with Singapore Airlines for a departure on March 21. Average one-way fare in economy was prior to the war at €650.

Skyscanner shows also a price starting from €767 for a one-way on the same date between Frankfurt and Mumbai on Air India – approximately twice the normal average price in economy.

Tourism to feel the impact if oil prices climb further

Industry analysts say the trend could spread further as fuel costs ripple through airline pricing. Experts estimate that transatlantic fares are expected to rise by around 6–10% on some carriers, while long-haul Asia-Pacific routes may see increases of roughly 8% to 15% due to higher fuel burn and longer flight paths avoiding restricted airspace for booking well in advance.

The consequences could extend beyond aviation. Higher airfares combined with broader inflation may dampen discretionary spending, potentially slowing global tourism demand later in the year.

Destinations in the Middle East are expected to feel the most immediate impact, but markets heavily dependent on long-haul travel could also experience softer demand if ticket prices continue to rise.

Despite the risks, industry observers at the recent ITB Berlin 2026 noted that global travel demand remains resilient. However, if the conflict persists and oil prices remain elevated, 2026 could see slower tourism growth, higher travel costs and increased volatility across the aviation sector.