Move over, brown cow

By Yeoh Siew Hoon

In Kansas City, there is a steak restaurant named The Golden Ox. A hunch tells me that this restaurant is bound to do well this year.

One, because on January 26, billions of Chinese throughout the world will celebrate the year of the Golden Ox and two, the restaurant was born in 1949, an Ox year.

The Chinese, being a superstitious lot, believes 60 is an auspicious age – it means you have celebrated your fifth cycle. And Ox people (those born in 1913, 1925, 1937, 1949, 1961, 1973, 1985, 1997 and 2009) are supposed to do well in their own year.

On eBay there are Golden Ox lucky money sets being sold. The seller says it will bring good luck especially to those born with the ox over their heads.

I found one website, chinesefortunecalender.com, which called it a Brown Cow year, but I don’t think that has quite the same ring as Golden. So if you don’t mind I will stick to the precious metal, which I am told should rise in price this year as well.

Ox people are characterised by three words, according to my cyber fortune-teller – steadiness, perseverance, and determination. My mother has all three – she is the archetypical cow – and she will tell us that we are going to need all those three qualities to get us through 2009.

I have been asking industry contacts around the world on their take for the year, specifically, when will travel recovery begin and when can we smile again?

An American friend working for a global travel company believes it will be Europe that will claw back in terms of travel demand by the second half of the year. “Asia will then follow and the US will be last. First in, last out,” he said.

He stresses his prediction only covers travel demand and not economic recovery. “That will take years and years to sort out in my home country,” he says.

The ITB World Travel Trends Report is less optimistic about Europe. It believes “imminent negative developments will impact strongest on North America, Europe and the business travel sector, rather than on holiday travel”.

And it tips that the Asian-Pacific region and South America could emerge from the crisis by the end of this year, as these are the regions that depend most on rising demand from the threshold countries India and China.

Then there are those that tip that Asia will recover first. I read reports from the ASEAN Tourism Forum that says intra-regional travel will save the day. Lower air fares, increased air links, new air corridors, the dropping of the exit tax on Indonesians and lower prices everywhere will stimulate travel, both from new travellers and those to whom travel is a right, not a luxury.

Then my Supergirl’s X-ray vision picked out a small news item hidden under the pile of bad news that tells me that the world’s global bank, HSBC, is predicting that Asia might come out of the recession as early as the second quarter.

It is tipping a V-shaped recovery – i.e the economy hits bottom and rallies quickly, but it will not be as fast as from previous crises.

“The cavalry is on its way in the form of the most significant policy response ever,” said senior Asian economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde. “The policy easing and sharp falls in commodity prices should lead to stronger domestic demand, thus generating recovery in Asia.”

It reminds me a little of the recovery of my leg. At the darkest hour, we always believe things are going to hell and back. Then with every day, and with every step, our thoughts become lighter and lighter so much so we almost feel like doing a jig.

But not yet, my friends. Be like the Ox. Stay steady. Persevere. And stay determined. Then we can all buy each other Golden Ox steaks when the time calls for it.

Catch up with Yeoh Siew Hoon every week at The Transit Cafe – www.thetransitcafe.com