Qantas optimistic about outbound travellers, inbound not so rosy
Australian travellers appear to be quite resilient in times of economic crisis, says Qantas when looking at previous economic data, and despite downturns still have traditionally opted to journey overseas, on the other hand, the inbound market is nowhere near as resilient.
As more travellers look to curtailing discretionary spend in the months ahead, businesses are bracing themselves against losses, and it appears that Qantas is still quite optimistic on short-term outbound figures.
“Outbound residents, domestic and regional [travel], passenger numbers driven by Australian economic activity are very, very resilient to recession,†said Tony Webber, Qantas Economic Research Group Chief Economist, at the Australasian Economic Travel and Tourism Resilience Forum on Saturday.
“They virtually never go negative, except for in times of significant external shocks, not economic shocks but other shocks, such as September 11 and the Bali bombings.”
“Which is good news, Aussies are very resilient to economic slowdown.”
“This is true for outbound travel and it’s true for domestic travel – which the only time it [domestic] has ever fallen negative was the pilots strike in the late 1980s and during the collapse of Ansett,†he adds.
“This appears to suggest that travel has become part of Australian culture, and we’re less likely to give this up despite economic pressures.”
On the other hand, inbound tourism operators may be seeing more gloom, as Mr Webber expresses his doubt on the inbound market.
“Inbound travel, in response to economic weakness, goes negative. History tells us this… minus 2.2% in 1983, minus 3.3% in the early ‘90s recession, minus 0.8% in the Asian financial crisis, minus 5.8% in ’02 and minus 2.4% in ’03,†he said.
“So the bad news is this will continue to go negative.â€
Additionally, he notes that oil prices are still a major concern for Qantas, despite the current favourable price of crude. He points out that on Saturday crude oil fell to just under US$40 a barrel, and as such has plummeted by US$108 in just five months.
“The volatility of crude oil… [means] that oil prices could bounce back incredibly quickly,†Mr Webber points out.
A Report by The Mole from media partner at the Forum eTravelBlackboard
John Alwyn-Jones
Vegas’s Billion-Dollar Secrets – What They Don’t Want Tourists to Know
Visit Florida’s New CEO Bryan Griffin Shares His Vision for State Tourism with Graham
Chicago’s Tourism Renaissance: Graham Interviews Kristin Reynolds of Choose Chicago
Graham Talks with Cassandra McCauley of MMGY NextFactor About the Latest Industry Research
Destination International’s Andreas Weissenborn: Research, Advocacy, and Destination Impact
Graham and Don Welsh Discuss the Success of Destinations International’s Annual Conference
Graham and CEO Andre Kiwitz on Ventura Travel’s UK Move and Recruitment for the Role
Brett Laiken and Graham Discuss Florida’s Tourism Momentum and Global Appeal
Graham and Elliot Ferguson on Positioning DC as a Cultural and Inclusive Global Destination
Graham Talks to Fraser Last About His England-to-Ireland Trek for Mental Health Awareness
Kathy Nelson Tells Graham About the Honour of Hosting the World Cup and Kansas City’s Future
Graham McKenzie on Sir Richie Richardson’s Dual Passion for Golf and His Homeland, Antigua
ADS PRO 
Germany new European Entry/Exit System limited to a single airport on October 12, 2025
Airlines suspend Madagascar services following unrest and army revolt
Qatar Airways offers flexible payment options for European travellers
Air Mauritius reduces frequencies to Europe and Asia for the holiday season
TAP Air Portugal to operate 29 flights due to strike on December 11