Russian boycott of Turkey could lead to lower prices

A Russian boycott of Turkey following the shooting down of a Russian warplane on Tuesday could have dire consequences for the country’s tourism industry, it was claimed this week.

Russia is the second largest market for Turkey, only just behind Germany, and it was – until this week – by far the fastest growing.

In the five years from 2009, the market has doubled to 4.5 million trips a year.

But this week, Russia’s state tourism agency Rostourism recommended suspending the sale of holidays to Turkey after a Russian warplane was shot down on the Turkish/Syrian border.

The TASS news agency quoted Russian tour operator Natali Tours saying it will halt sales of tours to Turkey ‘in the near future’.

And Moscow announced that Turkey was no more safe than Egypt, where a Russian holiday flight was bombed out of the sky last month.

Vitalij Vladykin, research manager at industry commentator Euromonitor International said: "Turkey is the most popular leisure tourism destination for Russians, with more than 4.5 million trips being done from Russia to Turkey in 2014 

"Even if Turkey tries to attract tourists from other countries, it will not make up losses from Russia."

The UK is Turkey’s third largest market but, as the graph shows, it is much smaller than Russia, sending only 2.5 million visitors a year, barely more than in 2009.

Akin Koc, managing director of UK Turkey specialist Anatolian Sky Holidays, said some regions were likely to suffer more than others.

"For example Antalya is a firm favourite with the Russian market, where tourists can enjoy large hotels with plenty of glitz, glamour and entertainment. Hoteliers there are very dynamic though and will want to look immediately to other markets, so it could be that the UK market benefits from a sudden rush of very strong offers for certain destinations," he said.

"Smaller resorts such as those in the Dalaman region, with sleepy fishing villages and boutique hotels, don’t tend to be as popular with the Russian market, so the impact in these areas is likely to be less noticeable."

Vladykin of Euromonitor predicted bankruptcies among Russian travel firms if the boycott continues into the high season, especially as Russia already has a ban on travel to Egypt, its second biggest market, and travel to Tunisia is out of bounds following the terrorist attacks in Sousse and Tunis this year.

"However, some Russian tourists are creative and do not want to refuse traveling to their favourite budget destinations. They started to travel to Egypt from neighbouring countries. For instance, Belarus noted significant increase of tours to Egypt," said Vladykin.

TUI and Thomas Cook both have tour operations in Russia.

Ted Wake, joint MD of Kirker Holidays, believes Russia’s ban will also keep high-end American clients away from Turkey.

He said four- and five-star hotels were already responding with offers for UK clients, such as four nights for the price of three and free room upgrades.

"Turkish Airlines is also joining forces with hotels in an attempt to stimulate bookings," he said.

John Telfer, operations director at fellow AITO member Explore, said: "Russian tourism is very significant to Turkey, but the bulk is in the cheaper properties.

"Now is the low season but I suspect that this will not be a short term issue with regards to Russian governmental advice so there will be a good deal more capacity for the volume markets. For those offering trips away from the packaged coast there will be no impact and it will be business as usual."