Tend those green shoots with care, says Bailey

By Yeoh Siew Hoon

The appetiser was an interesting mix of textures and flavours – watermelon, strawberries and Japanese tomatoes with horseradish dressing.

The main course was less exciting for me – two pieces of dried chicken breast with a piece of crispy parsnip and a Granny Smith apple peel.

I was at Singapore’s hottest restaurant, 53 Armenian Street, where the chef is known to be very particular about his creations. That must be why the food took quite a while to arrive.

But then the focus wasn’t supposed to be on the food – we were there to hear some good news from Abacus International.

The key messages – it’s not as bad as had been anticipated, people are still travelling but are changing their behaviour, some changes will remain after the recession is over and lest we get carried away by optimism at the first bit of news, there are still risks that could derail the fragile state of the industry.

Lunch host Robert Bailey, president and CEO of Abacus International, said the latest Abacus Travel Insights 2H09 highlighted better than expected results in travel segments such as online bookings, low cost carrier airlines, high performing markets such as Vietnam, a new trend for earlier booking lead times and a growing focus on intra-Asian and domestic travel.

He warned however against ‘blind faith’, noting that difficult conditions could still limit the green shoot’s ability to thrive in the current barren economic landscape without careful tending or the introduction of new thinking.

“It’s true that there is evidence of green shoots sprouting and lining the path that the industry is travelling on right now, which is great news. However, this road is still likely to be a bumpy one, leading Abacus to forecast 4 to 6 per cent less travel bookings for 2009 when compared to a similar period in 2008.”

FIT bookings were down by three percent in the first six months of 2008, which he said “is not as bad as was originally expected and could indicate a slow-down in the slow-down or even perhaps some of the signs of recovery”.

“This result is testament to the resilience of the travel industry in this region which far from resigning itself to the overwhelming challenges caused by the economic crisis and the H1N1 virus, has quickly responded with aggressive promotions and creative marketing that has motivated consumers to start travelling again, albeit not on the scale previously seen.

“These attractive deals have helped to minimise the slow-down in booking levels.”

The latest Abacus Asia Travel Sentiment survey also found that a majority of agents, some 32.8 per cent, expect growth for their business volume/revenue for the next six months.

The segment most in need of a new path is corporate travel, particularly in China where agents surveyed in Abacus Asia Travel Sentiment survey were largely cautious about the next six months.

Up to 33% of those interviewed by Abacus were expecting considerable negative impacts on their business from corporate travel. This suggests that the segment is most ready for change and the adoption of new thinking to bolster its future, said Bailey.

“As counter intuitive as it may sound, now is a time for opportunity. Historically, difficult times have been the making of many an organisation or industry and the travel industry is no exception. Perhaps for the corporate segment, it’s time for new solutions or a focus on doing things differently that will help make the difference,” he said.

I suppose it was appropriate the lunch was held at 53 Armenian Street because eating here certainly needs new and different thinking to food. This is not an eat-and-run place, every dish is a work of art and presentation is almost everything.

Catch more of Yeoh Siew Hoon at The Transit Cafe – www.thetransitcafe.com