Top Economist Says ‘Great Recession’ Over – Tourism Potential Growth
Robert C Shelburne SEE VIDEO INTERVIEW: www.travelmole.tv/watch_vdo.php
Talking at the Tourism Resilience Committee meeting today at the UNWTO Assembly in Astana, Kazakhstan, Dr Robert C Shelburne Chief Economist UN Economic Commission for Europe, typified the current recession as ‘The Great Recession’ , that recovery would follow a ‘Square Root Symbol Path’ and that tourism would be a potential winner.
Dr Shelburne said that the crisis had been the worst since the second world war, that it had been twice the size of the 1982 recession, that world trade had decreased by 12%, and capital flows had decreased by 80% – the fall in GDP had neen worse than the Great Depression. Luckily the worst of the effects had been avoided by expanion interventions by governments and co-operation between global institutions – in short Keynsian tactics.
The current brisk recovery, said Dr Sheldon, would even out because of short-term government economic support ceasing, the dysfunctional financial sector, private sector indebtedness, rising unemployment and companies one-off boosted inventories, hence he characterised the shape of a recovery as a ‘Square Root’.
Developing countries would be the first to benefit from renewed growth, said Dr Shelburne, particularly Indian and China, he forecast that Brazil would be the world’s 5th largest economy by the time the country hosts Olympic Games in 2016.
Although growth from the developed countries would slow, there was massive potential in tourism business in and from the growing middle classes in the developing countries – forecast to grow from around 400m to 2.1bn by 2030.
The hotel and property market is currently exposed, said Dr Shelburne, relying on commercial property values and high indebtedness.
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