Big rise in air traffic predicted………
A report by Scott Rochfort in The Age says that Boeing has predicted air traffic on the Qantas-dominated Australia-North America route could nearly quadruple over the next two decades if the route is opened up to more competition.
Supporting the view that further liberalisation on the route will stimulate traffic growth rather than see competitors eat into Qantas’ existing share of the market, Boeing has forecast air traffic between the Oceania area and North America could grow at an annual rate of 7 per cent until 2026.
This even outstrips the annual 6.2 per cent growth in traffic between the US and the Asia-Pacific, the world’s fastest growing aviation market.
“It’s all about the Open Skies (talks) that are in place between North America and Australia today,” Boeing’s newly appointed head of sales, Randy Tinseth, said yesterday.
The growth would be helped by the introduction of longer range aircraft, such as Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner, which could fly non-stop from Australia to any point in the US, he said.
At present Qantas controls 80 per cent of the market between Australia and US, which is largely concentrated on the Sydney-Los Angeles route. On what is considered one of the world’s most uncompetitive long-haul routes, United Airlines is Qantas’ only competitor.
Pending the result of “Open Skies” talks between Australia and US early next year, Virgin Blue hopes to launch 10 flights a week to the US by late 2008.
Playing down fears that the impending entry of the Singapore Airlines-backed Tiger Airways could lead to surplus airline seats domestically, Boeing also upgraded the number of aircraft orders it believed would have to be made in Oceania from 430 to 580 by 2026.
“We’ve seen great strength in this economy, and as a result of this strength we’ve adjusted our forecasts,” Mr Tinseth said.
Mr Tinseth said Boeing predicted 130 of the extra orders would be for single-aisle jets, such as the B737s used by Virgin Blue and Qantas and A320s used by Tiger and Jetstar.
Boeing predicts there will be 28,600 orders for airliners worldwide worth $US2.6 trillion ($A2.9 trillion) by 2026.
The forecast adds weight to expectations Qantas and Virgin Blue’s recent dream run could continue well into the future. It also parallels forecasts released by Airbus in June, which predicted the Australia-Pacific area would require 563 new aircraft by 2025.
“In the next 20 years, growth in Australia-Pacific will be unmatched by any other developed market,” Airbus said in its June forecast.
One week after the Federal Government announced it would hold “Open Skies” talks with the US after the election, the Labor Party said it would continue the talks if it won government.
“Our priority on the Pacific route is to get Virgin Blue flying in 2008, and we will progress agreements for the Pacific route on a bilateral basis country by country,” said Labor transport spokesman Martin Ferguson.
He declined to say if this could involve reopening talks which could allow Singapore Airlines to fly the Sydney-LA route.
Report by The Mole from The Age
John Alwyn-Jones
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