CREDIT CRUNCH HOLISTIC SOLUTION NEEDED – VISION EDITOR

What did we say about the geography of tourism changing?

What does it mean when the UK£ gets devalued against the US$ by 30% in a week? Does it just mean that many more US tourists (and others based in US$ economies) will come to Europe and there will be many fewer incoming to the US?

What does it mean when global assets including stock markets and property drop by up to 50%. Does it just mean that many fewer passengers will travel either on holidays or on business trips or for meetings, conferences, exhibitions and incentives?

What does it mean when the oil price reaches a historic high of $147 a barrel and then, within months drops through the floor to less than $64 a barrel. Can we all breath a sigh of relief because it should mean cheaper travel?

What does it mean when interest rates and inflation were gradually going up and now are quickly coming down and central banks are flooding the markets with money to increase confidence? Does it mean that this is the time to invest in fixed assets?

What does it mean when a minute ago we were staring global warming right in its livid furnace, and now we are trying to find the money to keep afloat.

Dirk Gently (real name Svlad Cjelli, also known as Dirk Cjelli) bills himself as a “holistic detective” who makes use of “the fundamental interconnectedness of all things” to solve the whole crime, and find the whole person.

And maybe that’s what’s called for now. An understanding that it’s ALL (economy, currencies, climate change etc) connected and unless we deal with the situation holistically, we’ll throw it out of balance again.

Let’s take a break for a minute from the news, frenetically egging us on to desperation, and look at the situation with a rather cooler attitude.

Like the sage said “There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.” Right. And not as stupid as it sounds.

Actually, six months ago, nobody would have put any money on the oil price or interest rates dropping. If you had said that stock markets would drop 5% a day for weeks at a time, you’d have been accused of negative thinking. And the US$ rising by 30%? You’d have been dragged off by people with white coats on.

So, in Mr Rumsfeld’s terms, we’re totally in unknown, unknown territory. That’s something that we know for sure.

Which presents a real opportunity for a great many people in the tourism business.

Provided they don’t over extend themselves in terms of their expenditure of money or energy, provided they follow a sustainable route, they have a truly sensational opportunity to build a great tourism business. The entry ticket has never been lower.

And when we hit the real bottom – who knows when that will be? There will be something much more powerful than a ’Dead Cat Bounce’. It will be up, up all the way until 2050.

Why 2050?

Well, if we look at this problem holistically, the one big issue not yet to have come into play is climate change. You see, we can play about with the world’s economy and engineer a resurgence. We can find more natural resources to squander. But we can’t yet manage the planets, the Earth or indeed, the sun. Maybe we will, who knows?

But, unless we can manage the natural order of things by 2050 we’ll probably have used up all our cards. And the heat will truly be on.

That’s why there are now fabulous short term sustainable opportunities and a great big golden hot-as-hell threat! Unless, that is, we deal with this current problem holistically.

Valere Tjolle

With apologies to Douglas Adams who is probably watching from an alternative universe!.