Exposing the fat at Qantas
A report by Terry McCrann in the Herald Sun this morning says that there’s a sort of exquisite timing in Macquarie Research saying Qantas shares could be worth $8.57, just as the actual share price nudged towards the $5.45 offered by the Macquarie-led takeover consortium.
And a market or other crash excepted, the shares will all but certainly go above the offer price, without of course any continuing assistance from the now-dormant offer.
Important to note that Macquarie said another private equity consortium could be prepared to pay up to $8.57 in a takeover, not that they would likely go anywhere near there in normal market trading.
Nevertheless, it is saying the MacBank led group of barbarians nearly got to buy Qantas at $11 billion when the ‘rational barbarian’ would pay up to $17 billion and by implication still make a barbarian-size profit on such a deal.
That points to two things.
How close it came to $6 billion jumping out of the pockets of Qantas shareholders into the pockets of the main-chancers, over and above turning a basic profit from the change of ownership.
Second and more informatively for the future, how much fat exists on the Qantas bone.
Both in providing comfort for this share price, general market conditions aside and for where it can be taken with more aggressive management, obviously not all the way to $8.67, with that only “available” in another takeover context………and there won’t be another takeover, short of a Qantas implosion.
Why? Because there is no alternative successor to the MacBank-Alco bid group and they won’t be bidding again.
This is because of the Qantas Sale Act mandating 51% local ownership and all sorts of prohibitions on a Singapore taking it over, something that would create the greatest airline in the world, by a country mile.
Nice one Terry!
Report by The Mole and Terry McCrann in the Sun Herald
John Alwyn-Jones
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