FUEL, FOOD, WATER & POPULATION GROWTH TO IMPACT WORLD TOURISM DRAMATICALLY – REPORT SAYS
Oil is now climbing to a record high of $150 a barrel, making biofuel growing more feasible. This in turn adds to the competition for agricultural land and pressurises the cost of foodstuffs. Wheat prices have doubled in a year, rice is rationed, food riots are happening in dozens of countries.
Only recently, we’ve seen the effect of rising fuel prices on airlines. Three high-profile closures in less than a month and a warning from ATA that world airlines will lose a total $2.3bn this year.
World population is set to increase from 6bn to 9bn in the next 40 years. Given the developing county’s populations increasing appetites, food demand is forecast to double in this time frame.
Farmers are the largest users and largest wasters of water. They currently use 70% of the world’s water and will need to double production without using any more.
Moreover, says the World Bank, the numbers of people in developing countries who earn over UK£8000, US$16,000, Euro10,000 is set to rise by 600% from 352m to 2.1bn. Getting hungrier and eating more and more cereal-intensive meat. They now travel by car instead of bicycle. They export less food and import more.
Energy demand is still increasing, particularly in US, China and India and is projected to increase 50% in the next 20 years, possibly 100% by 2040.
Droughts (for example in Australia’s Murray River Valley) and floods (for Example the Mekong Delta, Mozambique and Bangladesh) exacerbated by climate change are further challenging the global harvest.
Even higher oil prices, even higher biofuel prices, higher water prices, higher food prices. More people to feed, water and transport.
“It all adds up to the beginnings of a crisis for the global tourism industry†Says Valere Tjolle, VISION Editor and author of the VISION/TOTEM Sustainable Tourism Report 2008 “The only way we’re going to deal with this and keep the industry on the right road is to understand the problems and deal with them The tourism industry does not exist in a vacuum.â€
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