German airports optimist for 2026 as air taxes get reduced
German airports could handle more than 225 million passengers in 2026, provided transport policy reforms move forward to address long-standing structural disadvantages, according to a new forecast by ADV, the German Airports Association.
Aviation experts from ADV member airports modeled several scenarios for the year ahead. Under the assumption that the federal government follows through on promised relief measures and tackles additional cost burdens, ADV expects passenger traffic to grow by 4.2% in 2026.
Domestic air travel within Germany is projected to rise by 2.9%. Traffic on European routes is expected to post stronger growth of 5.2%, while long-haul passenger numbers are forecast to increase by 3.1%.
Demand remains particularly strong in the leisure and private travel segments, a trend also reflected in recent announcements by tour operators and travel providers. The ADV forecast is based primarily on airlines’ route planning and demand trends across individual market segments.
ADV Chief Executive Ralph Beisel put the figures into context: “We are seeing encouraging signals for 2026, driven by stable demand and initial course corrections in tax policy. For the coming year, we expect around 225 million passengers at our member airports. Compared with the pre-crisis year of 2019 with a total of 248.1 million passengers, this represents a recovery level of about 91%.
Germany as an aviation hub is growing again, but it remains structurally disadvantaged. We need further relief on taxes and fees, so airlines are willing to launch new routes at German airports. Still, confidence is returning. After a long period of political standstill, there is a shift in thinking. Airports are once again being recognized for what they are: strategically vital infrastructure with enormous economic leverage.”
Summer 2026 Flight Schedule Seen as a Turning Point
With German airports projecting a passenger growth of 4.2%, ADV’s outlook is only slightly below the latest forecast from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The air transport association expects global passenger traffic to increase by 4.4% in 2026. The 225 million passengers anticipated in Germany would account for just over 4% of the worldwide passenger volume projected for that year.
ADV expects renewed momentum in the summer 2026 flight schedule, driven by several factors. The planned reduction in Germany’s aviation tax as of July 1, 2026, will ease at least part of the excessive cost disadvantages facing the country as a location. ADV management expects that additional capacity should also return to the market as grounded aircraft due to engine issues are brought back into service. At the same time, airlines are signaling a willingness to reassess their schedules—provided the overall framework conditions improve.
“Summer 2026 could mark a turning point, if today’s political signals are translated into a lasting location policy,” Beisel said.
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