Is “worst over†for tourism/travel?
The decline in international tourism has started to bottom out and lodging demand should start to recover next year, according to two new and separate studies.
International tourist arrivals declined by seven percent between January and August of this year, but the rate of decline has eased in the past few months, says the UNWTO World Business Barometer. The group expects “moderate” growth next year.
In the latest survey, the percentage of experts with a negative outlook for the next four months has decreased from 62 percent to 42 percent while for 30% of experts, prospects are ‘equal’, and for 28 percent they are ‘better’ or ‘much better’.
“Throughout this year, the world’s tourism industry was faced with a large number of challenges, led by the global economic crisis, the credit crunch and rising unemployment, not to mention the influenza pandemic. Seldom in recorded tourism history has the industry had to contend with so many different issues at the same time,” said UNWTO Secretary-General a.i. Taleb Rifai.
He added:
“However, the negative trend that emerged during the second half of 2008 and intensified in 2009 is starting to show signs of receding."
PricewaterhouseCoopers said of the lodging industry’s expected improved performance:
“Hotel occupancy rates will increase in 2010. However, 2010 ADR levels are expected to remain below 2009 room rate levels.”
In 2010, PricewaterhouseCoopers forecasts that a supply growth of 1.4 percent, combined with growing demand, will result in a subtle recovery of hotel occupancy to 55.8 percent, which is seven percentage points below the long-term average of 62.8 percent.
"Barring any unforeseen circumstances from an operating perspective, the worst appears to be over," said Scott D. Berman, principal and U.S. Industry Leader, Hospitality & Leisure, for PricewaterhouseCoopers.
By David Wilkening
David
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