Market will still lag behind 2000 in two years
WTM 2003 Special: European operators are predicting a 16% rise in tourism in the next two years, according to a recent survey, but recovery is a long way off.
The survey was carried out by the European Tour Operators Association (ETOA), which questioned 50 European operators on their prospects for 2003 and 2004. According to ETOA, on average the operators thought tourism would grow 16% by 2004.
Despite this growth, levels of tourism will remain below 2000, considered to be the benchmark year, before the Foot and Mouth crisis, September 11 attacks, war in Iraq, and the global economic slump took their toll.
ETOA says the driving factor behind the recovery will be the gradual recovery of the economy, although it says this could easily be quashed by the threats of terrorism, a weak US dollar and rising interest rates.
ETOA says that according to its research, the worst hit destinations in 2003 were the UK, and specifically London, and France. It says the quickest recovery will occur in Italy, the UK and Spain, in that order.
ETOA says the EU could take action to hasten the recovery in tourism. The first way would be by changing taxation laws so non-EU nationals are exempt from tax, this would enable operators in the EU to compete more equally with those based outside the EU, according to ETOA. Secondly ETOA says the EU should step up security to deter terrorists from travelling, and thirdly it says sustainable initiatives should be practical, rather than simply lead to increased bureaucracy.
Look out for the TravelMole interview with ETOA executive director, Tom Jenkins, later this week
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