New challenge for troubled airlines: finding enough pilots
Now that they’re back to being profitable, the world’s airlines have a new looming crisis: who is going to fly their planes?
A simple statistic describes the problem:
—Airlines worldwide need an average of 49,900 pilots a year from 2010 to 2030 as fleets expand, yet current training capacity is only 47,025, according to the International Civil Aviation Organization.
That is causing bidding wars as some airlines are offering tax-free salaries and four-bedroom villas for captains. Other carriers are reacting by offering free training.
“Philippine Airlines Inc. canceled flights in July and August and rebooked passengers after losing 27 pilots to higher paying jobs abroad,” according to Bloomberg News.
“It’s a major issue and will be a big challenge to the industry’s growth,” said Binit Somaia, an analyst for the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation. “Even if you can find the pilots, you have to pay top dollar for them because they are so scarce.”
The major US airlines alone are expected to hire more than 40,000 pilots in the next 12 years, according to world statistics.
But airlines in many other fast-growing companies will be competing for new pilots.
China, the world’s fastest-growing major aviation market, likely will account for a third of the region’s orders, according to Airbus, the world’s biggest aircraft maker. Its economy will grow 10.5 percent this year, compared with world growth of 4.6 percent, according to International Monetary Fund estimates.
India, with estimated growth of 9.4 percent this year, may overtake China as the world’s fastest-growing major economy as early as 2013, according to Morgan Stanley.
“There will be a shortage of pilots, and this is going to last for a while because it takes time to produce a good pilot,” said Elmer Pena, president of the Airline Pilots Association of the Philippines.
“I believe one can expect serious shortages among the foreign carriers who can’t afford to pay what it takes to attract qualified pilots,” said Louis Smith, president of FltOps.com.
World passenger traffic is expected to increase overall an average of 4.7 percent a year between 2009 and 2028, according to Airbus.
By David Wilkening
David
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