New report leak: worse than we thought: climate change and tourism plan b needed

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We are failing at mitigation – emissions tripled since 1970 – need to adapt quickly to a disaster scenario says leaked IPCC Climate Change Report

We’ve had a look at the next IPCC report due out next Monday – and it makes harsh reading.

The Climate Change Report makes the issues clear – we are failing to mitigate the problem, our emissions are still going up and we need to contemplate and plan the unthinkable – adaptation to a 4 degree climate change world in the second half of this century.

The world needs a Plan B on climate change because politicians are failing to reduce carbon emissions, according to a UN report.

It warns governments if they overshoot their short-term carbon targets they will have to cut CO2 even faster in the second half of the century to keep climate change manageable.

It warns that governments are set to crash through the global CO2 safety threshold by 2030. Humans have tripled CO2 emissions since 1970, it says – and emissions have been accelerating rather than slowing.

A Greenpeace spokesman told the BBC: "This new report captures the choices we face. It’s not too late; we can still avoid the worst impacts of global warming but only if the clean energy technologies that can slash carbon pollution are given the green light.

"The more we wait, the more it will cost. The sooner we act, the cheaper it will be."

The report says emissions are running at the high end of projections. Concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere are likely to break the 450ppm threshold by 2030. It adds that current pledges by governments made at climate summits in Copenhagen and Cancun currently exceed this cautionary limit.

The share of clean energy sources needs to triple or even quadruple by 2050, relative to 2010, the final draft explains. Delaying emissions reductions beyond 2030 will increase the challenge of bringing down CO2 to a safe level by the end of the century.

• Tourism is extremely vulnerable to climate change but where are the policymakers and serious actions?
• Low lying coastal zones and island developing states and small islands will be affected by storm surges, coastal flooding and sea level rise
• Large urban populations are at risk from inland flooding
• Extreme weather events will cause the breakdown of infrastructure and critical services, including electricity, water supply and health services
• There is risk of food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems
• Many ecosystems and the biodiversity they contain may be lost

Disappearing destinations, pre-occupied source markets, global insecurity – what will all that do to the travel and tourism industry?

Said Climate Change and Tourism specialist Professor Stefan Gossling: "Tourism is one of the most vulnerable sectors to global climate change. This constitutes a real paradox, and one that is difficult to explain."

"Mitigation efforts would clearly be economically beneficial, at least until current levels of overcapacity and wasteful consumption are significantly reduced. There is a clear business case for adaptation."

"Why would it be so difficult to implement policies enabling such processes? This is the question we should be asking ourselves. A good start would be to read the IPCC reports. As of today, summaries for policy makers by both WG I and II are available for this purpose."

Get the current IPCC reports: http://www.ipcc.ch/

Want the tourism issues? The Sustainable Tourism Ministers Briefing with a substantial section on Climate Change opportunities and challenges will shortly be published. Special offer HERE