Summer forecast for air travel: bumpy skies ahead

The North American summer travel forecast is generally not pleasant: packed planes, more bumped passengers and perhaps no let-up of lost luggage.

Observers are saying the strong US economy could lead to a record number of US air travelers in the next three months.

This comes at a time when the airlines are streamlining flights and raising prices.

“The six largest US airlines, hammered by five years of brutal losses, have streamlined their fleets and are flying fewer planes,” wrote The Wall Street Journal. The reduced schedule may be helping the airlines as they focus on profitability.

Last year, US airlines filled an average of 77.6% of their domestic and overseas flights. That was the highest level since 2004, said the Air Transport Association (ATA).

But that number could rise to 85% this summer, said the ATA.

Demand may be up, but the number of seats on US planes on domestic routes will be down 2% this summer, according to the ATA.

At the same time, with an eye to profits, the airlines are raising their fares. The large airlines recently added $50 to unrestricted coach fares in most markets.

Bumping is more common than a year ago, according to figures from the Department of Transportation.

The airlines and passengers will also have to cope this summer with fewer workers. Government estimates are that the major traditional airlines have 7% fewer workers than they did five years ago.

Automation with self-checking kiosks and the better use of technology overall may blunt some of that impact, however.

Report by David Wilkening