UNWTO warns of turbulence ahead
MADRID – There is a sting in the tail of the latest international tourist arrival figures provided by the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer.
While tourism growth has continued this year during sometimes turbulent times, UNWTO says that consumer confidence will be tested in some markets.
International tourist arrivals reached 610 million from January to August, with year-end growth estimated at 5.7 percent, which would put international arrivals at 880-900 million for the full year.
But UNWTO says that while preliminary 2007 results confirm the resilience of tourism demand external factors – ranging from turbulence in financial markets to security and health issues, rising fuel prices and increased taxation of air transport – pose a risk to growth.
“These factors have already started to weaken consumer confidence in some markets. This might spread wider and affect, at some point, the overall demand for international travel.”
Emerging destinations in Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Middle East have been the main growth drivers. Although well above their respective long-term averages, UNWTO noted that the more mature regions of Europe and the Americas showed a more moderate pace of growth.
“While regional trends may vary as new data becomes available, Asia and the Pacific is currently the star regional performer, recording an increase through August of 10 percent, ahead of the Middle East and Africa, both with eight percent.
Figures from China indicate the impact of China’s outbound market.
According to China National Tourism Administration, China maintained its status as Asia’s largest source of visitors as almost 30 million Chinese travelled abroad in the first nine months of 2007.
This figure represents a 17 percent increase from the same period in 2006 and the growth rate of China’s outbound visitors is increasing faster than the world’s average.
Out of the 30 million, 85 percent travelled for personal purposes while the remaining 15 percent are business travellers.
In the whole of 2006, 34.5 million Chinese travelled overseas with top destinations being Hong Kong, Macau, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam and Korea.
Ian Jarrett
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