NEW FORECAST: 4ft Sea Level Rise by 2100– threatened destinations include Manhattan, Maldives

Going, Going – Gone by 2100?

According to a new report led by the U.S. Geological Survey, we "face the possibility of much more rapid climate change than previous studies have suggested." The report synthesizes the latest published evidence on four specific threats for the 21st century. It uses studies not available to the UN’s IPCC 2007 report, which explored similar questions.

The report, commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, found that in light of recent ice sheet melting, global sea levels could rise as much as 4 feet (1.2 metres) by 2100.

The IPCC had projected a rise of no more than 1.5 feet by that time, but satellite data over the last two years show the world’s major ice sheets are melting much more rapidly than previously thought. The Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are losing an average of 48 cubic miles of ice a year, equivalent to twice the amount of ice in the Alps. The models used by the IPCC did not factor in the dynamic where warmer ocean water under coastal ice sheets accelerates melting. (About 600 million people currently live in low lying coastal areas.)

According to the Worldwatch Institute, of the 33 cities predicted to have at least eight million residents by 2015, some 21 coastal cities will certainly have to contend with sea rise impacts, however severe they may be. So it may not just be bye-bye to parts of Bangkok, but adieu to bits of Boston, many of Malibu’s glamour spots and even sections of lower Manhattan.

Prime examples of top tourist destinations at risk of this are the Maldives, where many of the islands are less than one metre above sea-level, as well as Goa, and river deltas such as the Mekong. In the USA, Florida’s beaches and Everglades are at a particularly high risk from rising sea levels, as well as North Carolina’s Outer Banks In terms of cities, New Orleans is in the most danger. But wealthy cities such as
Hamburg, London, Miami and New York City would all be seriously threatened by 4 feet of sea-level rise.

The report also found that the drought which began in the North American Southwest about 6 years ago could be the leading edge of a new climate regime for a wider region. Edward Cook, climatologist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, says that periodic droughts over the past 1,000 years have been made more intense and persistent by climate warming. Cook told the press conference, "What this tells us is that the system has the ability to lock into periods of profound, long-lasting aridity." Cook added: "If the system tips, that would have catastrophic effects on human activities and populations over wide areas."

The panel said two other systemic changes seem less imminent, but are still of concern. Vast quantities of methane gas are locked in ocean sediments, wetlands and permafrost. If these are destabilized by global warming it would create blowouts that would cause an abrupt temperature shift. The panel said blowouts appear unlikely in the next 100 years but steady emissions of methane could double. Tom Armstrong, senior adviser for global change programs at USGS, explained, "This is one of those things that keep people up at night, it’s a low-probability but high-risk scenario. If it were to occur, it would be life-changing…We need to be prepared to deal with it. There are no policies in place to deal with abrupt climate change."

The panel also looked at the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean, which sends warm water north and cold water south, warming Western Europe. Some scientists say the circulation could collapse if enough ice melts and dilutes the salty Atlantic. The panel found this scenario unlikely in the short term, but warned that the Gulf Stream’s circulation strength might decline 25% to 30% by 2100.

It was clear that sea ice melt has accelerated considerably over the past 2 years. This report confirms those observations. When the first climate models predicted the North Pole could be ice free by 2100, it was met with disbelief and called alarmist at best. It is now clear that the Arctic will be ice free by 2030 and that climate change is accelerating. Nations are laying claim to mineral rights in an ice free Arctic and shipping companies are calculating routes over the North Pole. The U.S. Climate Change Report tells us that climate deterioration is worse than we thought. If no action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; the human risks will be enormous.

According to the NASA group, 2008 was between the 7th and 12th warmest since systematic meteorological record-keeping began in 1880. But the report noted that the 9 warmest years on record have occurred since 1998. James E. Hansen, the head of NASA’s Goddard Institute explained that the decades-long global warming trend remains consistent with a growing influence from heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

Some statistics specialists have taken issue with some of the Goddard Institute’s methods, but the differences between NASA’s findings and those of independent British groups are "very small," said David Parker of the Hadley Centre. The Hadley along with the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia called 2008 the 10th warmest since 1850. In a news release, Peter Stott of the Climate Centre stated, "Without human influence on climate change we would be more than 50 times less likely of seeing a year as warm as 2008."

Valere Tjolle