Are Cambodia/Thailand tensions turning into a full-fledged war?

Tensions at the Cambodian-Thai border turns into a war-style confrontation

Thursday, 24 Jul, 2025 0

Since tensions simmered at the end of May between Cambodia and Thailand along contentious areas around temples that both Kingdoms claim, the situation evolved dramatically between both countries. The most recent events have now all the makings of a war’s opening act.

Deadly violence has erupted anew on the disputed Thailand–Cambodia border, triggering the most severe escalation in over a decade. On July 24, 2025, a Thai F‑16 fighter jet bombed Cambodian military targets, with the Thai army claiming one jet destroyed an enemy position. Cambodia condemned the strike as an act of aggression violating its sovereignty.

Thailand in return justified its acts to Cambodia recent installation of landmines along the border, in which Thai soldiers—including one who lost his leg—were severely injured. Thailand alleges these were newly planted Russian PMN‑2 mines, while Cambodia insists they are decades-old remnants and that Thai troops strayed beyond agreed safe paths.

Gunfire, rocket attacks, drone surveillance and artillery shelling erupted across at least six active conflict zones, notably around the sacred Ta Moan Thom temple situated between Thailand’s Surin province and Cambodia’s Oddar Meanchey province.

The intensifying violence has claimed at least 11 Thai civilians and one Thai soldier, including children, while dozens more have been injured. Thailand started to evacuate around 40,000 residents from 86 villages in affected border provinces to safer areas.

In diplomatic retaliation, Thailand recalled its ambassador from Cambodia and expelled the Cambodian ambassador. Cambodia immediately reciprocated. Attempts at de-escalation via ASEAN and Chinese mediation have thus far failed to halt the deepening crisis.

Tourism only affected around border areas

What could be the implementation for tourists in the region? So far, flights between both countries are running normally -particularly on the Bangkok-Phnom Penh and the Bangkok-Siem Reap routes.

However, Thai Airways International announced that it was ready to evacuate its teams in Cambodia and reassess its schedules to the Cambodian capital. Travelers going to Cambodia from Thailand can for the time only use flights. Border areas in both Kingdom are now restricted to foreign travelers. Military asks tourists to avoid going to the provinces of Surin and Sa keo while it is not possible anymore to travel from Trat in direction of the Cambodian border.

In Cambodia, tourists must avoid to visit Oddar Meanchey and Banteay Meanchey provinces.

Possible new military coup in Thailand ?

The escalating row between Cambodia and Thailand could also have political consequences in Thailand. Cambodia is indeed under the strong control of Prime Minister Hun Manet. And particularly of his father Hun Sen, former Prime Minister and current President of the Senate. Opposition to the Hun dynasty is today almost non-existent in the Kingdom.

In contrary, the Cambodian issue is likely to destabilize the current Thai government. The Thai government is now under significant political and public pressure. A conversation leaked by Hun Sen in June between former Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and the Cambodian strongman already drove to the suspension of the Thai PM.

The current Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai looks rather weak with little political legitimacy. This could give way to a return of military rule, a Thai long-established tradition.

The Thai military appears to have for now public backing for its retaliatory strikes (including air strikes with F-16s). Many Thais are demanding stronger military protection. This could conduct to a potential military coup. The last one occurred in 2014 and lasted for 9 years.

Such a situation would further destabilize an ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). The region keeps maneuvering and seeking compromises between an all-powerful China and a threatening America in trade and diplomatic relations.