One of the world’s largest online travel agencies is forecasting a major surge in inbound tourism to China, projecting around 200 million international arrivals over the next five years, a move it says could significantly support economic growth and help narrow the country’s widening services trade deficit.
James Liang, chairman of Trip.com Group, said the anticipated influx of foreign visitors could help position China as one of the world’s leading global tourism destinations, according to comments reported in domestic media.
He suggested inbound travel could contribute between 5% and 7% annually to China’s economic growth, while also helping to rebalance the country’s services trade gap. Last year, inbound tourism generated direct revenue equivalent to 0.67% of China’s GDP, he noted.
China’s services trade deficit, which has reached 828.7 billion yuan (approximately US$121.3 billion), has largely been driven by Chinese residents spending heavily on overseas travel compared with relatively lower inbound visitor spending, according to CEIC Data.
At the same time, China’s broader services sector continues to face headwinds from subdued domestic consumption, weighed down by a prolonged downturn in the property market and ongoing concerns about employment stability.
However, not all analysts share the most optimistic projections. Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said inbound tourism could realistically add 2% to 3% to annual economic growth, rather than the higher 5% to 7% range cited by Liang.
Structural barriers continue to limit China’s inbound tourism potential, including restrictive visa policies, uneven service standards, and relatively limited international marketing.
“China remains an underappreciated destination for global travelers due to visa restrictions, service quality gaps and insufficient promotion,” Xu said, adding that improvements are gradually being made across these areas.
Since 2023, China has expanded visa-free entry access to citizens from around 50 countries, including Canada, several Southeast Asian nations, and much of Europe. Authorities have also broadened tax refund programs for international visitors in an effort to stimulate higher spending.
Official data shows inbound travel to China surpassed 150 million trips last year, up around 17% compared with 2024. Foreign visitor spending exceeded US$130 billion during the period. Despite this growth, Liang noted that China still lags behind major global tourism markets in terms of contribution to GDP, particularly when compared with regions such as Europe, North America, or countries such as Thailand.
