US summer travel outlook: mostly sunny
Few observers expect travel volumes to return to pre-recession levels of mid-2008 but pent-up customer demand is driving improvements in most segments of the summer market.
"People seem to feel more confident about travel and the economy in general," said Genevieve Brown, senior editor of travel website Travelocity.
"Last year, they (bypassed) all trips. Demand was abysmal. This year, they’re going to travel come hell or high water," Rick Seaney, CEO of FareCompare.com, told USA Today.
A Travelocity poll of more than 2,000 travelers says about half of respondents plan to travel more this year, while only 7 percent plan to travel less.
According to the US Travel Association, leisure travel is expected to rise 2 percent; business travel, 2.5 percent; and international travel into the US 3 percent this year.
"Projected growth in leisure travel is an indicator of rising consumer confidence and disposable income," said Suzanne Cook, senior vice president of research for the Travel Association.
— In the airline market, about 2.2 million passengers per day will travel globally on US airlines between June 1 and Aug. 31 of this year, according to forecasts by the Air Transport Association of America (ATA). That’s 202 million passengers, or 1 percent, more than the same period in 2009.
"We anticipate that the summer 2010 air travel season will be very modestly ahead of last year," ATA President and CEO James C. May said in a statement.
The bad news for airline passengers is that the deeply cut capacity in recent years will not restore seats quickly enough to match the anticipated rise in demand for the summer season, according to analysts.
"Flights are going to be completely full this summer. I haven’t seen airlines smile about any seasons recently. But they’re smiling about summer," Seaney said. "Almost any cheap seats are sold out."
— Summer hotel occupancy will increase 2.2 percent this year over last, reaching 63.1 percent nationwide, according to STR. Average daily rates, however, will continue to decrease, falling 1.9 percent from summer 2009 to $95.16. Finally, revenue per available room will be virtually flat, increasing 0.2 percent to $60.03.
"While demand for hotels this summer will be brisk and will continue to provide positive recovery momentum, rate growth remains a concern," STR Vice President Brad Garner said in a statement.
— Meeting Professional International (MPI) members surveyed recently reported that a majority, or 58 percent, think current business conditions are better than a year ago. Almost two-thirds look forward to improved business conditions in the future.
By David Wilkening
David
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